CPI on October 14 and PPI on the 15th both came in scorching hot—September PPI was up 6.3% year over year, while gasoline prices jumped 20.3% in a single month, the biggest surge since late 2022. Risk assets were hit hard on the spot: South Korea’s KOSPI briefly fell far enough to trigger a circuit breaker, BTC plunged from 84,000 to below 81,000, and liquidations across the market totaled about $950 million, including $876 million in long positions.
The turnaround came on the 16th: Fed Chair Warsh publicly said he “wouldn’t prejudge the meeting,” and the market cut the probability of a rate hike in October from 27% to 15%. $BTC promptly recovered to 82,000, giving risk appetite a brief rebound.
My take is that we need to understand what’s driving this rally: it’s coming from “lower rate-hike odds,” not “stronger buying”—ETFs have been seeing net outflows during this period. A rally propped up by shifting expectations can quickly give back its gains if the next inflation report comes in hotter than expected again.
So there’s just one question: at 82,000, is $BTC a spot to trim positions on the rebound, or a chance to get back in?
#BitcoinReboundsTo$82,000
The turnaround came on the 16th: Fed Chair Warsh publicly said he “wouldn’t prejudge the meeting,” and the market cut the probability of a rate hike in October from 27% to 15%. $BTC promptly recovered to 82,000, giving risk appetite a brief rebound.
My take is that we need to understand what’s driving this rally: it’s coming from “lower rate-hike odds,” not “stronger buying”—ETFs have been seeing net outflows during this period. A rally propped up by shifting expectations can quickly give back its gains if the next inflation report comes in hotter than expected again.
So there’s just one question: at 82,000, is $BTC a spot to trim positions on the rebound, or a chance to get back in?
#BitcoinReboundsTo$82,000
