On the afternoon of November 1, the BTC on-chain fee rate stood at 3 sat/vB, with virtually no network congestion. At the same time, Binance’s spot price was around $78,090, up 0.85% over 24 hours.
The price is hovering near $78K, yet the chain is completely uncongested. At least in this snapshot, price movements haven’t driven people onto the chain to compete for block space. Low fees suggest that pressure from transfers and withdrawals hasn’t picked up for now.
One possibility is that this rally is still playing out on trading venues, without on-chain activity catching up—but that interpretation will need to be verified over time.
Next, keep an eye on two specific indicators: whether fees jump from single digits to double digits, and whether exchange wallets begin showing sustained net outflows. If fees stay flat, the on-chain story hasn’t started yet.
The price is hovering near $78K, yet the chain is completely uncongested. At least in this snapshot, price movements haven’t driven people onto the chain to compete for block space. Low fees suggest that pressure from transfers and withdrawals hasn’t picked up for now.
One possibility is that this rally is still playing out on trading venues, without on-chain activity catching up—but that interpretation will need to be verified over time.
Next, keep an eye on two specific indicators: whether fees jump from single digits to double digits, and whether exchange wallets begin showing sustained net outflows. If fees stay flat, the on-chain story hasn’t started yet.