Discussing BTC’s recovery near 77K: holding steady ≠ buyers are back
After the shock, spot returned to around 77K. On the previous U.S. stock trading day (10/30), spot Bitcoin ETFs still saw net redemptions of about $643 million, while some derivatives readings showed notional exposure recovering. Don’t mistake “price holding steady” for “demand coming back.”
Look at the substance, not the slogans:
1. Liquidations and exposure: large long liquidations ≠ positions have been cleared out. Coinalyze readings around 10/31 put notional exposure in selected Bitcoin contracts at about $28 billion, up around 3% over 24 hours; during the shock window, Binance BTC perpetuals also recorded a rise of around 4.5%. A notional rebound suggests “people are still positioned,” but it doesn’t tell you the leverage on their margin.
2. Flows: around $643 million refers to the 10/30 trading day; weekend spot data can’t show whether ETFs are buying continuously. The next read on institutional flows comes with Monday’s share-count data.
3. Calendar: the November 6 jobs report could shift expectations for financing conditions. A recovery will be on firmer footing if spot buying picks up and exposure doesn’t expand alongside it.
Price levels are just reference points; whether spot buying and exposure are moving in the same direction is what tells you how solid the recovery is.
$BTC
After the shock, spot returned to around 77K. On the previous U.S. stock trading day (10/30), spot Bitcoin ETFs still saw net redemptions of about $643 million, while some derivatives readings showed notional exposure recovering. Don’t mistake “price holding steady” for “demand coming back.”
Look at the substance, not the slogans:
1. Liquidations and exposure: large long liquidations ≠ positions have been cleared out. Coinalyze readings around 10/31 put notional exposure in selected Bitcoin contracts at about $28 billion, up around 3% over 24 hours; during the shock window, Binance BTC perpetuals also recorded a rise of around 4.5%. A notional rebound suggests “people are still positioned,” but it doesn’t tell you the leverage on their margin.
2. Flows: around $643 million refers to the 10/30 trading day; weekend spot data can’t show whether ETFs are buying continuously. The next read on institutional flows comes with Monday’s share-count data.
3. Calendar: the November 6 jobs report could shift expectations for financing conditions. A recovery will be on firmer footing if spot buying picks up and exposure doesn’t expand alongside it.
Price levels are just reference points; whether spot buying and exposure are moving in the same direction is what tells you how solid the recovery is.
$BTC