$ZAMA The hour around noon was interesting. Gate perpetuals climbed steadily from 0.0692 to 0.0747, with about 230,000 U in trading volume over the hour—roughly five times the usual hourly volume over the past couple of days. The most intense move came in the five minutes at 12:45, when about 77,000 U pushed the price straight to the day's high of 0.07471.
It's now around 0.0729, up about 14% over 24 hours. Bitcoin has barely moved, hovering around 77,800, so this move is happening on its own.
Let's rewind a day. Yesterday, there were two sharp sell-offs in quick succession at noon and 2 p.m. The hour from 3 p.m. saw about 1.88 million U in volume, with the price dipping to 0.05988 before recovering to 0.065 within the same hour. It then moved sideways between 0.064 and 0.066 all night. The price started edging up gradually early this morning, but volume didn't really pick up until noon.
What I most want to highlight is open interest. At 11 a.m. today, it was about 5.409 million contracts; after the noon rally, it was 5.413 million, and at 1 p.m. it was 5.411 million—almost no increase. The price rose 5%, but no fresh money came into the futures market to chase it. Short liquidations during that hour were only a little over 1,500 U, so this wasn't shorts being forced to close. The account long-short ratio recovered from 1.28 to 1.40, meaning the number of people going long is gradually increasing.
My take: this move looks more like buying from elsewhere leading the way, with futures simply following the price. Rallies without open interest backing them generally don't go far. 0.0747 is today's high; above that, 0.078 to 0.079 were the highs on October 27 and 28, where people are likely trapped. I'm not chasing it.
If the price pulls back, 0.0685 to 0.070 is where it moved sideways all morning before today's rally. Holding that range would be what confirms the move is holding; dropping below 0.0685 would basically mean the whole rally was for nothing.
What if I'm wrong? If it breaks above 0.0747 on strong volume while open interest also climbs past 5.6 million contracts, that would mean futures traders are on board too, and I'd be wrong about the move not going far. Fair enough.
Looking back at my post from this morning, $SOPH . I said the move was over, not to chase or buy the dip, and that I'd reconsider if it broke above 0.0018 on strong volume. Since then, it only reached a high of 0.001673, never touching 0.0018. It's now around 0.00138, about 10% lower than when I wrote. I was right not to buy the dip.
For market observation only; not investment advice.
It's now around 0.0729, up about 14% over 24 hours. Bitcoin has barely moved, hovering around 77,800, so this move is happening on its own.
Let's rewind a day. Yesterday, there were two sharp sell-offs in quick succession at noon and 2 p.m. The hour from 3 p.m. saw about 1.88 million U in volume, with the price dipping to 0.05988 before recovering to 0.065 within the same hour. It then moved sideways between 0.064 and 0.066 all night. The price started edging up gradually early this morning, but volume didn't really pick up until noon.
What I most want to highlight is open interest. At 11 a.m. today, it was about 5.409 million contracts; after the noon rally, it was 5.413 million, and at 1 p.m. it was 5.411 million—almost no increase. The price rose 5%, but no fresh money came into the futures market to chase it. Short liquidations during that hour were only a little over 1,500 U, so this wasn't shorts being forced to close. The account long-short ratio recovered from 1.28 to 1.40, meaning the number of people going long is gradually increasing.
My take: this move looks more like buying from elsewhere leading the way, with futures simply following the price. Rallies without open interest backing them generally don't go far. 0.0747 is today's high; above that, 0.078 to 0.079 were the highs on October 27 and 28, where people are likely trapped. I'm not chasing it.
If the price pulls back, 0.0685 to 0.070 is where it moved sideways all morning before today's rally. Holding that range would be what confirms the move is holding; dropping below 0.0685 would basically mean the whole rally was for nothing.
What if I'm wrong? If it breaks above 0.0747 on strong volume while open interest also climbs past 5.6 million contracts, that would mean futures traders are on board too, and I'd be wrong about the move not going far. Fair enough.
Looking back at my post from this morning, $SOPH . I said the move was over, not to chase or buy the dip, and that I'd reconsider if it broke above 0.0018 on strong volume. Since then, it only reached a high of 0.001673, never touching 0.0018. It's now around 0.00138, about 10% lower than when I wrote. I was right not to buy the dip.
For market observation only; not investment advice.