Hilarious. Got up early and checked the market, and $AVAX those bastards are back to fleece retail traders. Up 4.09%, with the price hitting 8.8840 USDT; the 24-hour range surged from 8.3960 to 8.9000, and trading volume reached 67 million. What the hell are those market manipulators up to this time?
Looking at the moving averages, EMA7 (8.6919) is clearly above EMA25 (8.5821) and EMA99 (8.5312)—a classic bullish alignment, with an incredibly strong trend. This is exactly when it’s easiest to chase the price higher, but then I checked the RSI: the 1-hour RSI has already hit 77.5, and the 4-hour is at 59.4. That’s firmly in overbought territory. Isn’t it obvious they’re just waiting for you to hold the bag? Hilarious.
MACD is holding up pretty well: the gap between DIF 0.061138 and DEA 0.031980 is widening, and the histogram is expanding, so bullish momentum is definitely there. But what about the Bollinger Bands? The price has already broken above the upper band at 8.7750, and the bandwidth is only 4.77%, which means this rally has been too steep—extremely strong, but with huge pressure to revert. On top of that, Stoch RSI has gone straight to 100, with both K and D maxed out, so a short-term pullback is practically inevitable.
There really is an inflow of funds: the OBV shows buyers in control, and the funding rate of 0.010% is also leaning bullish, so sentiment among bulls is still fairly healthy. However, the long/short ratio is 2.21, with longs making up 68.9%. That figure is down from before, though, so it looks like quite a few sharp players have already been quietly taking profits.
These big players are really slick: they push the price up while letting some people exit, all to create demand from those chasing the rally. I used to get screwed by this kind of trick all the time, rushing in whenever I saw a price rise and ending up trapped at the top.
As for key price levels, if you absolutely have to chase, the 8.6480–8.7075 range is worth watching. It lines up with the 38.2%–50% Fibonacci retracement and is roughly at the same level as EMA25 (8.5821). If volume and price action cooperate, it could hold. There are three resistance levels above: 8.8822 is the first resistance, near the previous high of 8.9000; 9.0224 is 1.5 times the ATR above the previous high; and 9.1447 is the 4H resistance level at 9.1028.
But the risk is significant too. If the price falls below 8.5413, it will have broken both the 61.8% Fibonacci level and the level 0.5 times the ATR below EMA25, completely invalidating the bullish thesis. ATR volatility is 0.081583, which means the short-term trading range is roughly 0.08. With volatility this high, chasing the rally is far too risky.
Overall, 9 indicators are bullish and 3 are bearish, so there is indeed upward momentum. But chasing after such a big rise is just asking to get wrecked. These bastards running the show exploit exactly this mindset, getting you to chase the price and become exit liquidity. If you really want to trade, wait for a pullback. Don’t let these damn market manipulators lead you around by the nose.
For market observation and conditional analysis only; this does not constitute a record of trading activity.