Solana has already lost the $100 level and is now trading around $95–96. At first glance, this looks like weakness. But this is exactly where an interesting asymmetry emerges: the RSI is near oversold territory, and the price is testing support after a sharp decline. Buyers only need to reclaim $96.50–98 to gain their first technical argument in favor of a recovery.
The latest CoinDesk Benchmark showed SOL at around $95.8. The asset lost a significant portion of its value in October, and the current structure remains below the psychological $100 level. So any long position right now should be conditional.
The fundamentals look better than the chart. In October, Solana activated Alpenglow — the network’s biggest consensus change since launch. At the same time, the ecosystem continues to develop its tokenized asset segment: RWA volume on the network reached a new high of around $5.19 billion. This doesn’t guarantee the token will rise, but it explains why a sharp sell-off doesn’t necessarily mean the network itself is getting weaker.
The problem lies in capital flows. Binance Square notes about $25 million in outflows from SOL ETFs over two days, as well as a large SOL sale by a whale. At the same time, an RSI of around 30 shows that sellers have already pushed the move quite far. This creates a classic situation: the fundamentals have not deteriorated, but sellers are still in control of the price.
That’s why entering around $95 without confirmation looks premature.
The cleanest scenario is to wait for a recovery above $96.50, then see whether SOL can move through $98–100. If this happens on rising volume, the odds of the bounce continuing will improve.
Trading plan
Main scenario — conditional long.
Area of interest: $94.20–95.10.
Confirmation condition: hold the zone and reclaim $96.50.
Stop: $91.70.
TP1: $98.95.
TP2: $101.80.
TP3: $105–108.
Invalidation: establish below $92.
Risk: 0.5–1% of capital.
Trade rationale: use oversold conditions only after buyers show a reaction.
Alternative scenario
If $92.50 is lost, the picture will deteriorate considerably. The next zones are around $86–82. The $92.50 area is currently viewed as an important level in the higher-timeframe structure.
Another bearish scenario is a break below $94 followed by a quick move back below it. In that case, trying to buy support turns into catching a falling knife.
Conclusion
SOL currently looks more interesting to watch than to buy immediately.
The $94–95 zone could produce a bounce, but confirmation would require a move back above $96.50, followed by a test of the $98–100 resistance.
If $92.50 doesn’t hold, the long idea is invalidated, and the market has room to move toward $86–82.
So the main question right now isn’t “Is Solana cheap?” The main question is whether buyers have shown up. The chart’s answer is still uncertain.
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