$ESPORTS was a pretty typical day of price action. Let's break down the structure.
Gate perpetuals are now around 0.00872, up about 23% over 24 hours, with a range of 0.00707 to 0.01019 and roughly 3.78 million U in volume. Bitcoin is around 77,700 and basically hasn't moved—that's its own market action. I haven't checked the news; I'm just going by the chart.
The first half of the move was a gradual climb. Until 5 p.m. yesterday, it stayed close to 0.0071 and moved sideways. After 5 p.m., it started edging up, with hourly lows rising steadily and volume climbing from 20,000–30,000 U to around 100,000 U. The real acceleration came at 2 a.m. today: that hour saw about 530,000 U in volume, and the price surged to 0.0098. Open interest jumped from around 648,000 contracts to about 836,000. At 4–5 a.m., it touched 0.01019, with open interest peaking at about 865,000 contracts, or roughly 850,000 U in notional value. Up to that point, volume, price, and open interest were all rising together. The structure looked fine.
The problem came at 6 a.m. That hour saw about 600,000 U in volume—the biggest candle of the day—and the price plunged directly from 0.01015 to 0.00846, giving back almost all the gains made after 2 a.m. Long liquidations that hour were only a little over 500 U, which suggests this wasn't a forced cascade; someone was selling aggressively. Open interest fell by about 100,000 contracts, as those who entered at higher prices headed for the exits.
The next few hours are even more worth watching. The price stayed stuck between 0.0086 and 0.0092. The 9 a.m. hour saw about 210,000 U in volume but couldn't push past 0.00917, while open interest climbed back to around 818,000 contracts. Positions are increasing, but the price isn't rising. At the same time, the account long/short ratio fell from around 2.5 overnight to 1.7, meaning more accounts are short. My read is that a fair number of the positions added in this rebound are shorts, not fresh fuel for another leg up.
So here's my take: the short-term structure is already broken. This sideways action looks more like indecision after the sell-off than consolidation before a second leg up. 0.00846 is the low of the 6 a.m. candle and is also around where the price was at midnight today. If it breaks below that on rising volume, the next level to watch is the platform around 0.0080 from 8–10 p.m. last night. I wouldn't chase a long here, and there's not much room to short at this level either. I'll wait for direction.
What would prove me wrong: if price gets back above 0.0098 on rising volume, while open interest climbs above 860,000 contracts, that would mean the 6 a.m. candle was just a shakeout. In that case, my read is wrong. I'll own it.
Looking back at yesterday's $GWEI : I said it was a slow grind up on low volume, so don't chase; I'd reconsider if it reclaimed 0.0242 on strong volume. It later topped out at just 0.0229 and never reclaimed that level. It's now around 0.0209, about 5% below where it was when I wrote that. Not chasing was the right call.
This is only an observation of price action and is not financial advice.
Gate perpetuals are now around 0.00872, up about 23% over 24 hours, with a range of 0.00707 to 0.01019 and roughly 3.78 million U in volume. Bitcoin is around 77,700 and basically hasn't moved—that's its own market action. I haven't checked the news; I'm just going by the chart.
The first half of the move was a gradual climb. Until 5 p.m. yesterday, it stayed close to 0.0071 and moved sideways. After 5 p.m., it started edging up, with hourly lows rising steadily and volume climbing from 20,000–30,000 U to around 100,000 U. The real acceleration came at 2 a.m. today: that hour saw about 530,000 U in volume, and the price surged to 0.0098. Open interest jumped from around 648,000 contracts to about 836,000. At 4–5 a.m., it touched 0.01019, with open interest peaking at about 865,000 contracts, or roughly 850,000 U in notional value. Up to that point, volume, price, and open interest were all rising together. The structure looked fine.
The problem came at 6 a.m. That hour saw about 600,000 U in volume—the biggest candle of the day—and the price plunged directly from 0.01015 to 0.00846, giving back almost all the gains made after 2 a.m. Long liquidations that hour were only a little over 500 U, which suggests this wasn't a forced cascade; someone was selling aggressively. Open interest fell by about 100,000 contracts, as those who entered at higher prices headed for the exits.
The next few hours are even more worth watching. The price stayed stuck between 0.0086 and 0.0092. The 9 a.m. hour saw about 210,000 U in volume but couldn't push past 0.00917, while open interest climbed back to around 818,000 contracts. Positions are increasing, but the price isn't rising. At the same time, the account long/short ratio fell from around 2.5 overnight to 1.7, meaning more accounts are short. My read is that a fair number of the positions added in this rebound are shorts, not fresh fuel for another leg up.
So here's my take: the short-term structure is already broken. This sideways action looks more like indecision after the sell-off than consolidation before a second leg up. 0.00846 is the low of the 6 a.m. candle and is also around where the price was at midnight today. If it breaks below that on rising volume, the next level to watch is the platform around 0.0080 from 8–10 p.m. last night. I wouldn't chase a long here, and there's not much room to short at this level either. I'll wait for direction.
What would prove me wrong: if price gets back above 0.0098 on rising volume, while open interest climbs above 860,000 contracts, that would mean the 6 a.m. candle was just a shakeout. In that case, my read is wrong. I'll own it.
Looking back at yesterday's $GWEI : I said it was a slow grind up on low volume, so don't chase; I'd reconsider if it reclaimed 0.0242 on strong volume. It later topped out at just 0.0229 and never reclaimed that level. It's now around 0.0209, about 5% below where it was when I wrote that. Not chasing was the right call.
This is only an observation of price action and is not financial advice.