The AI giants’ computing-power race has reached its third bill: who’s going to pay?
The five giants are projected to spend a combined $828 billion on capital expenditures in 2026 (according to Fortune’s figures), and four of them had negative free cash flow last quarter. What happens when there isn’t enough cash? Microsoft issued $25 billion in debt for the first time in more than nine years, while Meta is reportedly planning to raise around $97.5 billion, according to Reuters. The computing-power race is shifting from “paid for by operating cash flow” to “paid for by capital markets.”
For crypto’s primary market, there’s a useful framework here: at this stage of the cycle, the order of what the market rewards has changed—first, whether revenue adds up; then, whether fundraising can continue. Stablecoins and RWA have attracted institutional capital first, not because they’re the most exciting, but because their revenue models were the first to make sense—and the first to pass muster with traditional investors’ risk-control frameworks.
It’s a question worth asking of every sector burning cash to fuel growth: where will the next big check come from?
This post reflects only my personal observations and is not investment advice or a recommendation of any specific cryptocurrency.
The five giants are projected to spend a combined $828 billion on capital expenditures in 2026 (according to Fortune’s figures), and four of them had negative free cash flow last quarter. What happens when there isn’t enough cash? Microsoft issued $25 billion in debt for the first time in more than nine years, while Meta is reportedly planning to raise around $97.5 billion, according to Reuters. The computing-power race is shifting from “paid for by operating cash flow” to “paid for by capital markets.”
For crypto’s primary market, there’s a useful framework here: at this stage of the cycle, the order of what the market rewards has changed—first, whether revenue adds up; then, whether fundraising can continue. Stablecoins and RWA have attracted institutional capital first, not because they’re the most exciting, but because their revenue models were the first to make sense—and the first to pass muster with traditional investors’ risk-control frameworks.
It’s a question worth asking of every sector burning cash to fuel growth: where will the next big check come from?
This post reflects only my personal observations and is not investment advice or a recommendation of any specific cryptocurrency.