Yesterday’s poll still hasn’t revealed the answer: withdrawals only open today, and the full proof of reserves won’t be ready until November 3. $BTC closed at 77,435, failing to hold above 78,000. Bottom line: I’m leaning bearish here, but I’m not chasing shorts. I’ll wait for withdrawals to open and see what the verification shows.

Binance’s third update says it has filled 90% of the $6.3 billion gap. Ten major coins, including $BTC , $ETH , and $BNB , are now 100% backed. The snapshot was taken at midnight on October 31, and generating the full zero-knowledge proof will take 40 to 50 hours. They’ve also laid out where the money came from: the company treasury, the futures insurance fund, and some SAFU funds, with SAFU to be restored to around $1 billion afterward. A snapshot only proves there’s money on the books; the proof lets you check whether each person’s balance is included. Don’t confuse the two steps.

Sentiment around the money is another matter. On October 30, US spot $BTC ETF net outflows hit $643 million, the biggest single-day outflow since June. The $441 million that flowed in over the previous four days was wiped out in one day. $ETH also saw $156 million in outflows that day, and the Fear & Greed Index was at 34, still in fear territory. Institutions didn’t miss the update; they’re getting out first and asking questions later.

Today, watch whether the first batch of withdrawals arrives smoothly. This is just my personal opinion, not financial advice.

If withdrawals go smoothly, do we head for 78,000 first, or drop back to 76,500 for another test? Pick a side in the comments.

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