$XAU Gold has been treated like an ATM for liquidity. After first breaking above 4250, sentiment turned completely bearish, and now it’s fallen below 3900. If the 3800–3850 range can’t hold, I’m really afraid it’ll drop back to 3300...
The logic is simple: things started to go wrong a while ago, when the dollar began strengthening and Treasury yields rose. The US wants to strengthen the dollar, so it will inevitably put pressure on gold. At the heart of the US-Iran war is energy—oil and natural gas. The US military action in Venezuela is also about energy, and the US itself is a major exporter of diesel and natural gas.
So the US needs to maintain its dollar hegemony by controlling energy. Even if gold is powerful, at a moment like this it can’t be more powerful than the dollar.
Then there’s the impact of interest rates and rising Treasury yields. The inevitable result is higher financing costs and pressure on high-risk assets, as well as a higher opportunity cost for holding gold. When markets start falling, pressures like margin requirements pile on. Institutions then sell their most liquid assets (gold) for cash.
After that, when money becomes more expensive, large investors increasingly favor safe assets. So when high-volatility assets like US stocks and AI semiconductors can no longer generate higher expected returns, investors naturally choose to sell them for cash (a safe asset).
That’s the logic of it~~ Have a great weekend!
#英特尔创1974年以来最差单日表现 #黄金下跌
The logic is simple: things started to go wrong a while ago, when the dollar began strengthening and Treasury yields rose. The US wants to strengthen the dollar, so it will inevitably put pressure on gold. At the heart of the US-Iran war is energy—oil and natural gas. The US military action in Venezuela is also about energy, and the US itself is a major exporter of diesel and natural gas.
So the US needs to maintain its dollar hegemony by controlling energy. Even if gold is powerful, at a moment like this it can’t be more powerful than the dollar.
Then there’s the impact of interest rates and rising Treasury yields. The inevitable result is higher financing costs and pressure on high-risk assets, as well as a higher opportunity cost for holding gold. When markets start falling, pressures like margin requirements pile on. Institutions then sell their most liquid assets (gold) for cash.
After that, when money becomes more expensive, large investors increasingly favor safe assets. So when high-volatility assets like US stocks and AI semiconductors can no longer generate higher expected returns, investors naturally choose to sell them for cash (a safe asset).
That’s the logic of it~~ Have a great weekend!
#英特尔创1974年以来最差单日表现 #黄金下跌
