The monthly candle has closed, and we held $77,000—but honestly, I’m not feeling any relief.
$BTC October opened at 83,576, and at 8 this morning it closed around 77,500, down just over 7% for the month. Last night, I asked everyone to guess whether it would close above or below $77,000. The answer is above—if you guessed right, give yourself a pat on the back 😂
Why can’t we get excited? Because this “holding the line” is thanks to sideways trading, not buying. The price moved only about $1,600 all day Saturday, and ETFs saw net outflows of over $600 million on Friday. This kind of low-volume sideways trading feels more like everyone’s waiting for a switch to flip than anyone rushing to buy.
I’m watching just two levels for now. The upper one is 77,900—it’s been tested a few times over the past two days, but hasn’t broken through. The lower one is the event low near 76,300; below that is the 120-day moving average around 74,000. Put simply, as long as we stay in this range, I’m in no rush to make a call.
$ETH has me more conflicted than BTC. It’s around 2,258 now, down more than 16% over the past 30 days. Yesterday it was still below the 120-day moving average at 2,256; today it just managed to climb back above it, by only a few dollars. At a level this close to the moving average, it needs to hold for a few days to count—one bearish candle could send it right back below.
The most important thing today actually isn’t on the charts—it’s Binance. According to the latest official announcement, 90% of the stolen assets have been replenished, and ten major coins, including BTC, ETH, and USDT, are backed 1:1. The goal is to resume withdrawals today (11/1); the exact time will be announced later. The proof of reserves using zero-knowledge proofs is expected to be independently verifiable on 11/3. My stance is still the same: only trust official announcements in the app. Treat any private message offering “compensation claims” or “asset verification” as a scam.
Altcoins are showing a clear split. Here are three examples:
- TRX fell another 5% or so to 0.308, down 8% for the week. Chainalysis says hackers are swapping TRX for stablecoins on Tron and then depositing them into DeFi to avoid having the funds frozen. While that selling pressure persists, I’m staying away.
- Morpho rose around 14% in 24 hours to 2.38, but liquidity in its reUSD market suddenly dried up that same day, and borrowing rates briefly surged to nearly 40%. With a sharp rally and protocol trouble happening at the same time, I’ll take a closer look before deciding.
- Stacks rose 16% yesterday, standing out amid a broadly weak market. But I haven’t found any strong news to support the move, so it seems more sentiment-driven.
$BNB is around 704. Holding above 700 isn’t weak, and how smoothly withdrawals resume today will probably show up directly in its price action.
As for sentiment, the Fear and Greed Index has risen from 30 to 34. It’s still in the fear zone, but it hasn’t continued to fall.
Two other things to remember this week: the U.S. has ended daylight saving time, so data will now be released at 9:30 p.m. Beijing time. ISM is due Monday night, and nonfarm payrolls on Friday night.
My general view is that this episode won’t truly be behind us until withdrawals resume smoothly and BTC gets above 77,900. If there’s a rush of withdrawals on the day they resume, or if the price breaks below 76,300, I’d play defense and avoid trying to catch the bottom.
This is just my personal view—manage your own positions carefully 🙏
Once withdrawals resume, will you withdraw some of your funds right away or leave them where they are? Let me know in the comments.
The above is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All markets carry risk.