Honestly, this kind of market is the most frustrating: neither up nor down. You watch the charts all day for nothing 😅
$BTC It spent the whole day drifting between 76,300 and 77,900, and it’s now around 77,400, barely moving in 24 hours. This morning I said the key level to watch for the monthly close at 8 a.m. tomorrow was 77,000. Turns out it’s been hugging that line all evening, as if it were planned.
$ETH A little stronger, up less than 1% over the past 24 hours to 2,250. But as I mentioned this morning, it had fallen below the 120-day moving average (around 2,256), and it still hasn’t quite climbed back above it. Until it can reclaim that line, I’ll remain skeptical about ETH’s rebound.
The two coins moving in opposite directions really stood out today. TRX, which I’d just been proven wrong about this morning, fell more than 7%, then dropped another 4% today to 0.319. I definitely praised its stability too soon. On the other hand, LINK rose nearly 5%, and the DeFi recovery we’ve seen over the past few days is still going.
As for sentiment, the Fear & Greed Index has been stuck at 30 for two days in a row. It hasn’t gotten worse, but it hasn’t recovered at all either. The ETF net outflows of over $600 million I mentioned this afternoon are still weighing on people’s minds.
Here are the things I’ll be watching over the next few days:
- The October monthly candle closes at 8 a.m. tomorrow. Whether it closes above or below 77,000 will determine just how ugly this candle looks.
- $BNB Binance says withdrawals will resume in phases, with proof-of-reserves results to be released on 11/2. Follow the official announcements, and don’t trust private messages.
- U.S. ISM manufacturing data on Monday and October nonfarm payrolls on Friday. It won’t be a quiet week on the macro front.
I’ve thought through both scenarios. If the monthly candle closes firmly, withdrawals resume smoothly, and ETFs don’t see another major outflow on Monday, I think BTC could get a chance to test above 78,000. It tried to break through 77,900 several times today but couldn’t—that’s the first hurdle. On the other hand, if it falls below today’s low of 76,300, I’d be watching the 120-day moving average around 74,000. It hasn’t been breached since August.
That’s just my personal take. Liquidity is thin over the weekend, so manage your positions carefully.
Where do you think the monthly candle will close tomorrow morning? Above or below 77,000? Leave a number in the comments, and I’ll come back tomorrow night to see who got it right 👀
The above is only my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. The market carries risks.