$ONDO has bounced from 0.361 to around 0.42 over the past two days, up about 15%, but the number of coins in futures open interest fell over the same period from around 120 million to 105 million, a drop of more than 10%.
Prices are up while open interest is down, which suggests this rebound was mainly driven by shorts closing their positions, not by new longs entering the market.
The news itself is actually pretty good. This week, Ondo brought seven tokenized investment portfolios to Solana, three of them using BlackRock strategies. Their total value locked surpassed $40 million within four weeks of launch. DTCC’s tokenization service also went live, with Ondo on its list of partners. The RWA sector is making tangible progress.
The issue is how the whales are positioned. The whale long/short ratio surged to 3.38 before yesterday morning’s sell-off, then fell steadily afterward to 2.27. It kept dropping throughout the day-long rebound. Meanwhile, the overall account long/short ratio rose from 1.25 to 1.39. Whales are reducing their longs while retail traders are buying the dip. That’s not a combination I usually follow. Funding rates are still slightly negative, so the shorts haven’t completely given up either.
One more thing to make clear: a good product doesn’t necessarily mean the token price will rise. There’s a gap between the portfolios’ TVL and the scale of tokenized stocks on-chain, on one hand, and value accrual to ONDO itself, on the other. The market’s sell-off from 0.52 this month is essentially discounting that gap.
I’m not chasing above 0.42. If I wanted to hold spot, I’d rather wait for it to retest the 0.38 area and then buy a small amount; as long as it holds above yesterday’s low of 0.361, I’d add gradually. I’m staying away from futures for now. This story will only have real buyers behind it when the whale long/short ratio stops falling and open interest starts rising along with the price.
Prices are up while open interest is down, which suggests this rebound was mainly driven by shorts closing their positions, not by new longs entering the market.
The news itself is actually pretty good. This week, Ondo brought seven tokenized investment portfolios to Solana, three of them using BlackRock strategies. Their total value locked surpassed $40 million within four weeks of launch. DTCC’s tokenization service also went live, with Ondo on its list of partners. The RWA sector is making tangible progress.
The issue is how the whales are positioned. The whale long/short ratio surged to 3.38 before yesterday morning’s sell-off, then fell steadily afterward to 2.27. It kept dropping throughout the day-long rebound. Meanwhile, the overall account long/short ratio rose from 1.25 to 1.39. Whales are reducing their longs while retail traders are buying the dip. That’s not a combination I usually follow. Funding rates are still slightly negative, so the shorts haven’t completely given up either.
One more thing to make clear: a good product doesn’t necessarily mean the token price will rise. There’s a gap between the portfolios’ TVL and the scale of tokenized stocks on-chain, on one hand, and value accrual to ONDO itself, on the other. The market’s sell-off from 0.52 this month is essentially discounting that gap.
I’m not chasing above 0.42. If I wanted to hold spot, I’d rather wait for it to retest the 0.38 area and then buy a small amount; as long as it holds above yesterday’s low of 0.361, I’d add gradually. I’m staying away from futures for now. This story will only have real buyers behind it when the whale long/short ratio stops falling and open interest starts rising along with the price.
