Where did the people who went all-in at once go on August 3? Lao Niu talks about the unglamorous business of splitting a buy into four tranches
Lao Niu has been bullish on SPCX all along, so there’s no need to go over the direction again. This piece doesn’t add any new entry points; it just uses the plan Lao Niu himself shared to talk about buying in batches. The article about the name change on October 29 called for one tranche near 142 and another near 140. Yesterday, Episode 2 laid out the remaining two: a third near 135 and a fourth near 130. When U.S. stocks dipped on Friday, the price fell into the 135 range, so the third tranche was added as planned. Taken together, the four tranches make up Lao Niu’s full plan for this stock.
The reason not to buy it all at once is that Lao Niu has never known where the bottom is. SPCX went public in June and, just a few days later, surged as high as 225.64. On August 3, it hit 104.83. The high and low for the same stock were more than twice as far apart within just a few months. With volatility this high, Lao Niu doesn’t really believe anyone who says they can buy at the absolute bottom. The point of buying in batches isn’t to get the cheapest possible price; it’s to still have money to deploy when the price falls, so you don’t panic.
As I write this, at around 14:57, SPCX perpetuals are trading around 136.9. The tranches at 142, 140, and 135 are already in place, with one tranche left to add near 130. If I’d gone all-in at 142 back then, I probably wouldn’t have slept soundly these past few days. That’s the benefit of splitting up your buys: when the price falls, you’re not taking a beating—you’re waiting for a level you decided on in advance. If the price hasn’t reached it, Lao Niu can go make a pot of tea. Everyone has different finances and a different pace, so before copying this unglamorous approach, take a moment to consider whether you can handle it.
$SPCX #币安披露黑客事件进展63亿美元损失已弥补八成
Lao Niu has been bullish on SPCX all along, so there’s no need to go over the direction again. This piece doesn’t add any new entry points; it just uses the plan Lao Niu himself shared to talk about buying in batches. The article about the name change on October 29 called for one tranche near 142 and another near 140. Yesterday, Episode 2 laid out the remaining two: a third near 135 and a fourth near 130. When U.S. stocks dipped on Friday, the price fell into the 135 range, so the third tranche was added as planned. Taken together, the four tranches make up Lao Niu’s full plan for this stock.
The reason not to buy it all at once is that Lao Niu has never known where the bottom is. SPCX went public in June and, just a few days later, surged as high as 225.64. On August 3, it hit 104.83. The high and low for the same stock were more than twice as far apart within just a few months. With volatility this high, Lao Niu doesn’t really believe anyone who says they can buy at the absolute bottom. The point of buying in batches isn’t to get the cheapest possible price; it’s to still have money to deploy when the price falls, so you don’t panic.
As I write this, at around 14:57, SPCX perpetuals are trading around 136.9. The tranches at 142, 140, and 135 are already in place, with one tranche left to add near 130. If I’d gone all-in at 142 back then, I probably wouldn’t have slept soundly these past few days. That’s the benefit of splitting up your buys: when the price falls, you’re not taking a beating—you’re waiting for a level you decided on in advance. If the price hasn’t reached it, Lao Niu can go make a pot of tea. Everyone has different finances and a different pace, so before copying this unglamorous approach, take a moment to consider whether you can handle it.
$SPCX #币安披露黑客事件进展63亿美元损失已弥补八成
