#币安披露黑客事件进展63亿美元损失已弥补八成 On the news front, the market took a double hit yesterday. We woke up to a nasty shock: Binance had been hacked, and assets might be gone. By evening, the shock had barely worn off when U.S. stocks—especially the Nasdaq, which represents tech stocks—plunged. To sum up at the close: all three major indices fell across the board. The Nasdaq dropped 2.9%, the biggest decline of the day, while the S&P 500 fell 1.8%, its worst day since June.
The Dow fell 1.1%, closing near 51770 points. The Fear and Greed Index dropped straight from 50 to 30, putting the market in a state of extreme fear. Leng Feng thinks Binance responded to the hack very promptly and effectively, and its compensation plan was also quite comprehensive. It will also strengthen its security measures, so the impact may be short-lived. If this were the only black swan event, it might even be an excellent buying opportunity. But the impact of the Nasdaq plunge on Bitcoin may not be easy to assess in the short term, so we still need to watch and wait. Also, the November 3 midterm elections are another potential risk; it’s genuinely hard to say whether the outcome will be good or bad.
On the technical front, if we define the rise from around $58000 to around $88000 as a wave 1 advance, that’s a gain of $30000. The move from $88000 to now would then be a wave 2 correction. The low was around $76200, a decline of $12000. In my personal view, based on the size of the move, the correction is nearing its end. Even if the decline reaches half the size of the advance—that is, $15000—the price would be around $73000. So what you need to do now is be greedy when others are fearful: be a little bolder and buy in small positions in stages. Don’t expect to buy everything at the absolute bottom. The resistance zone above is probably around $79500–$80500, where we may see a retest. More cautious traders could also enter if the retest holds without making a new low.
Ethereum is moving in step with Bitcoin, so trade according to Bitcoin’s rhythm. The next key support is around $2150, and key resistance is around $2350. The main point is that Ethereum is clearly showing more strength than Bitcoin, which is a good sign. As the saying goes, whether it falls depends on Bitcoin, and whether it rises depends on Ethereum. Since Ethereum is showing signs of turning stronger, there’s no need to keep fearing the market.
The Dow fell 1.1%, closing near 51770 points. The Fear and Greed Index dropped straight from 50 to 30, putting the market in a state of extreme fear. Leng Feng thinks Binance responded to the hack very promptly and effectively, and its compensation plan was also quite comprehensive. It will also strengthen its security measures, so the impact may be short-lived. If this were the only black swan event, it might even be an excellent buying opportunity. But the impact of the Nasdaq plunge on Bitcoin may not be easy to assess in the short term, so we still need to watch and wait. Also, the November 3 midterm elections are another potential risk; it’s genuinely hard to say whether the outcome will be good or bad.
On the technical front, if we define the rise from around $58000 to around $88000 as a wave 1 advance, that’s a gain of $30000. The move from $88000 to now would then be a wave 2 correction. The low was around $76200, a decline of $12000. In my personal view, based on the size of the move, the correction is nearing its end. Even if the decline reaches half the size of the advance—that is, $15000—the price would be around $73000. So what you need to do now is be greedy when others are fearful: be a little bolder and buy in small positions in stages. Don’t expect to buy everything at the absolute bottom. The resistance zone above is probably around $79500–$80500, where we may see a retest. More cautious traders could also enter if the retest holds without making a new low.
Ethereum is moving in step with Bitcoin, so trade according to Bitcoin’s rhythm. The next key support is around $2150, and key resistance is around $2350. The main point is that Ethereum is clearly showing more strength than Bitcoin, which is a good sign. As the saying goes, whether it falls depends on Bitcoin, and whether it rises depends on Ethereum. Since Ethereum is showing signs of turning stronger, there’s no need to keep fearing the market.