Binance’s $6.3 billion hack is an accelerant of this downturn, not its cause—the real pressure comes from a liquidity squeeze driven by “no Fed rate cuts + $114 oil + a repricing of the AI narrative in U.S. stocks.” The Binance incident simply kicked an already fragile market while it was down (21Shares data: BTC fell only 2% in 24 hours, far less than the 26% drop after FTX, showing the market doesn’t view it as a systemic risk). Over the next 24 hours, the most likely scenario is low-volume bottoming between 75,500 and 79,000. The real directional catalyst will be withdrawals opening on Sunday and proof of reserves on Monday. The key to the medium-term outlook isn’t the BTC price, but whether ETFs continue to see net inflows—that’s where institutions vote with real money.