$BTC
Last night, Bitcoin plunged to a new low of 76,260, and three Fed officials quickly lined up to strike a hawkish tone. Logan called for “at least two more hikes,” while Musalem said “tightening needs to happen sooner rather than later.” Their confidence came from September’s core PCE inflation, which hit a four-month high of 3.1%.
But strangely, the market wasn’t spooked: the odds of a December rate hike actually fell from 84% to 75%. Why? Because September’s nonfarm payrolls added just 29,000 jobs, showing a clear cooling in employment. My bet is that the market is focused on downside economic pressure: the officials’ hawkish talk is probably about managing expectations. What will really decide things is the November 6 jobs report and the December FOMC meeting.
My personal plan hasn’t changed: wait to short BTC on a rebound near 77,900. Absolutely no buying the dip. Until the rate-hike blade actually falls, I’d rather be a little late than rush in.
#美联储官员释放加息信号12月预期仍存分歧
Remember one thing: trust the data, not the talk.
(The above reflects only my personal read of the market and is not advice.)
Last night, Bitcoin plunged to a new low of 76,260, and three Fed officials quickly lined up to strike a hawkish tone. Logan called for “at least two more hikes,” while Musalem said “tightening needs to happen sooner rather than later.” Their confidence came from September’s core PCE inflation, which hit a four-month high of 3.1%.
But strangely, the market wasn’t spooked: the odds of a December rate hike actually fell from 84% to 75%. Why? Because September’s nonfarm payrolls added just 29,000 jobs, showing a clear cooling in employment. My bet is that the market is focused on downside economic pressure: the officials’ hawkish talk is probably about managing expectations. What will really decide things is the November 6 jobs report and the December FOMC meeting.
My personal plan hasn’t changed: wait to short BTC on a rebound near 77,900. Absolutely no buying the dip. Until the rate-hike blade actually falls, I’d rather be a little late than rush in.
#美联储官员释放加息信号12月预期仍存分歧
Remember one thing: trust the data, not the talk.
(The above reflects only my personal read of the market and is not advice.)
