【Hot Take | Has “Uptober” fallen short again this year?】
At 8 a.m. tomorrow (Beijing time), BTC’s monthly candle closes, and October is likely to end down for the second year in a row.
First, the numbers we can verify:
1) Binance spot $BTCUSDT opened October at around 83,624, reached a monthly high of about 87,220 and a low of about 76,326, and is now around 77,326, for a monthly change of roughly -7.4% (the candle hasn’t closed yet).
2) Last October was also down, by about 3.9%. According to Coinglass, 10 of the 13 Octobers from 2013 to 2025 were up, with an average gain of about 18.5%—that’s how the nickname “Uptober” came about.
3) Crypto wasn’t the only thing weighing on the market this month: a Binance hot wallet theft incident hit toward the end of the month, while U.S. tech stocks also fell amid concerns about earnings and AI spending.
My take: seasonal patterns are more like “probability trends” than promises on a calendar. When macro factors or black swan events show up, historical averages can quickly go out the window. Rather than bet on whether prices can recover before the monthly close, I’m more focused on the first few days of November: whether Binance withdrawals resume as planned, and how Monday’s proof of reserves looks. I’ll keep my regular DCA schedule unchanged and won’t use leverage based on the monthly candle’s color.
For my personal records only; not investment advice.
$BTCUSDT $BNBUSDT
At 8 a.m. tomorrow (Beijing time), BTC’s monthly candle closes, and October is likely to end down for the second year in a row.
First, the numbers we can verify:
1) Binance spot $BTCUSDT opened October at around 83,624, reached a monthly high of about 87,220 and a low of about 76,326, and is now around 77,326, for a monthly change of roughly -7.4% (the candle hasn’t closed yet).
2) Last October was also down, by about 3.9%. According to Coinglass, 10 of the 13 Octobers from 2013 to 2025 were up, with an average gain of about 18.5%—that’s how the nickname “Uptober” came about.
3) Crypto wasn’t the only thing weighing on the market this month: a Binance hot wallet theft incident hit toward the end of the month, while U.S. tech stocks also fell amid concerns about earnings and AI spending.
My take: seasonal patterns are more like “probability trends” than promises on a calendar. When macro factors or black swan events show up, historical averages can quickly go out the window. Rather than bet on whether prices can recover before the monthly close, I’m more focused on the first few days of November: whether Binance withdrawals resume as planned, and how Monday’s proof of reserves looks. I’ll keep my regular DCA schedule unchanged and won’t use leverage based on the monthly candle’s color.
For my personal records only; not investment advice.
$BTCUSDT $BNBUSDT
