The prediction market sector has doubled in valuation outright.

Kalshi announced on 10/29: a $1B Series G at a $40B post-money valuation, co-led by Wellington and Sequoia, with participation from a16z, Coatue, Baillie Gifford, Morgan Stanley IM, CapitalG, Hudson River Trading, and others.

Let's compare the pace:

1️⃣ October 2025: valued at around $5B (CNBC)

2️⃣ May 2026: $22B

3️⃣ Now: $40B, up about 82% in just over five months

Official figures:

- Annualized trading volume across all businesses exceeds $1T (prediction markets + commodities + crypto + perpetuals)

- More than 30 million accounts

- More than 75% of prediction market trading volume

- Over $1B in annualized non-sports revenue

Where the money goes—that’s the key: indices (already partnered with S&P to create prediction market indices), single-stock perpetual futures, compute markets (pricing computing power), plus institutional business and expansion in Latin America and Europe.

My take: Kalshi no longer wants to just offer event contracts. It wants to build a new exchange and go head-to-head with CME and ICE (that’s how Reuters put it). Stock perps + compute futures—put those two together and you’re essentially seeing crypto-native products brought into a TradFi-compliant framework.

On-chain, Hyperliquid and Polymarket are expanding into stocks and commodities; on the regulated side, Kalshi is expanding into perps. Everyone is after the same prize: 24/7 risk expression. Whoever builds deep institutional liquidity first wins.

The risks are also clear: most new product categories still need regulatory approval, and a private-market valuation doesn’t mean the public market will support it.

Sources: Kalshi official blog, 10-29; CNBC; Reuters

This is not investment advice. DYOR.