With less than a day left, October’s monthly candle is basically set: $BTC opened at 83624, reached a high of 87220, and is now hovering around 77400, down about 7.5% for the month. Last October also closed in the red (about -3.9%), so “October always goes up” has failed to come true for two years in a row.
What stings more is the price level. September opened at 78581, and the price has now fallen back below that, meaning September and October have basically been a wasted effort—the big +25% candle in August filled the hole from the first half of the year, but since then the market has just been digesting gains in place. $ETH is even weaker, down about 16% in October, more than twice BTC’s decline. This month, capital has clearly been retreating toward the strongest asset. The Fear and Greed Index plunged from 51 to 30 and hasn’t recovered in two days.
My stance for these final hours of the month: I’m not betting on anyone painting a nice long lower wick before the close. Weekend liquidity is thin, so whether prices are pushed up or dumped, it doesn’t count for much. We’ll have to wait until the US stock market opens on Monday and funds return in the first week of November to see the real direction. I’m holding my spot positions; no new futures positions for the next two days. The monthly low at 76326 is the only level I’m watching: if the monthly candle closes above it, that’ll count as a temporary hold; if it gets broken before the close, I’ll wait another week.
What stings more is the price level. September opened at 78581, and the price has now fallen back below that, meaning September and October have basically been a wasted effort—the big +25% candle in August filled the hole from the first half of the year, but since then the market has just been digesting gains in place. $ETH is even weaker, down about 16% in October, more than twice BTC’s decline. This month, capital has clearly been retreating toward the strongest asset. The Fear and Greed Index plunged from 51 to 30 and hasn’t recovered in two days.
My stance for these final hours of the month: I’m not betting on anyone painting a nice long lower wick before the close. Weekend liquidity is thin, so whether prices are pushed up or dumped, it doesn’t count for much. We’ll have to wait until the US stock market opens on Monday and funds return in the first week of November to see the real direction. I’m holding my spot positions; no new futures positions for the next two days. The monthly low at 76326 is the only level I’m watching: if the monthly candle closes above it, that’ll count as a temporary hold; if it gets broken before the close, I’ll wait another week.
