Just yesterday afternoon, I wrote a whole piece praising TRX for being steady—it had barely moved in 30 days. Then I woke up and it was one of the biggest losers, down more than 7% over the past 24 hours and now around 0.327.
Honestly, that’s a bit embarrassing 🫠 But it’s worth unpacking, because it’s part of the same story as last night’s broader market rebound.
First, a look at the broader market.$BTC It’s around 77,300 now, up just 0.6% over the past 24 hours and basically moving sideways near yesterday’s low. The real action in this rebound isn’t there, but among a group of DeFi veterans: UNI, LINK, and ENA are all up around 13% overnight, while AAVE has gained 12%.
Why these coins in particular? CoinDesk’s market recap noted that the biggest gainers were exactly the coins the hacker had previously held and sold. On Thursday, UNI and AAVE both fell by around 11%. Put simply, the assets that got hit hardest bounced back first, which looks more like a recovery after selling pressure ran out than new money rushing into DeFi.
TRX is the opposite case. According to some on-chain analysts, part of the stolen funds was converted into a large amount of TRX on Tron, and those funds appear to have played a role in the unusual surge the day before yesterday. Now that the tide has gone out, it’s no surprise the price has returned to around where it started. Yesterday, I only looked at “no movement for 30 days” and didn’t take this into account. That was an oversight on my part.
$ETH 2,244, up nearly 2% in 24 hours and a little stronger than BTC. But it’s still down more than 16% over 30 days, and ETH ETFs have now seen net outflows for four consecutive trading days. My view hasn’t changed: the bounce is worth watching, but don’t rush to call it a reversal.
$BNB Back to 709, up nearly 4% overnight and above 700 again. This level matters for sentiment; at least it shows the market is gradually digesting the event.
On the Binance situation, I’ll stick to the official statements: Richard Teng said the withdrawal target is to resume on Sunday, subject to rigorous testing. The company has prepared more than $6.3 billion to cover the stolen assets, and plans to publish its proof-of-reserves report by next Monday. I won’t pass along any other rumors. And a reminder: anyone DMing you to “move your assets” or “verify urgently” is a scammer.
As for sentiment, the Fear and Greed Index is still at 30. The most-traded options contracts are all puts, with the November 13 put at a $74,000 strike price seeing the most activity. People are talking about a rebound, but they’re still buying insurance.
It’s Saturday, so liquidity is thin. I’m personally paying more attention to two things:
1. The October monthly candle close at 8 a.m. tomorrow. BTC started the month around 83,600 and is now down roughly 7.5% for the month. Whether it can close the month above 77,000 seems more meaningful to me than whether it moves a few hundred dollars today.
2. The pace of the withdrawal resumption. Whether there’s a wave of withdrawals afterward, and whether the proof-of-reserves figures add up, will directly affect sentiment next week.
My approach for now is simple: I’m not chasing this DeFi rebound, and I’m leaving my current positions untouched. I’ll wait for the monthly close and the withdrawal resumption before deciding what to do.
Just curious: do you think last night’s rebound was driven by real buying, or was it just shorts closing their positions?
This is just my personal opinion, not investment advice. Markets are risky, so manage your positions carefully.