Market snapshot: The current price is 77,428, down slightly by 0.2% over 24 hours. The high-low range is 76,325–78,804, with prices grinding out a bottom on declining volume.

Technical analysis: The 4-hour RSI is just 29, in oversold territory, while the daily RSI at 33 is also nearing a low. The drop has been sharp, but don't rush to buy the dip; the daily MACD death cross is still widening. The 1-hour MACD golden cross is the only bright spot, suggesting a short-term recovery may be due. However, all moving averages are bearishly aligned, and the price is stuck below the MA20. First, watch the upper Bollinger Band at 78,555; if the price can't break above it, this is just a relief bounce. Support is at 76,325; if that breaks, watch below 76,000.

Capital flows: The long/short ratio is 3.03 for large accounts and 2.84 for retail traders. Long positions are extremely crowded—a danger signal, as any rebound could be wiped out by a sharp shakeout at any moment. The 0.01% funding rate is neutral, and open interest is elevated at 96,000 BTC. Aggressive buying is slightly dominant, suggesting some funds are buying the dip, but don't chase at higher prices.

Today's focus: Fear & Greed Index at 30, market sentiment is Fear. My view is bearish, but I won't chase shorts: an oversold bounce could offer a small-position short-term long, targeting around 78,500, with a stop-loss at 76,300. For the medium term, I'll wait for a daily MACD golden cross before discussing a reversal. Don't mistake a bounce for a reversal.

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