A $6.4 billion theft, but BTC fell just 3%—$BTC held up better than in 2018
Two days after the largest crypto theft in history, BTC hasn’t collapsed. Chainalysis and TRM Labs estimate the losses at around $6.4 billion. Yesterday, BTC briefly touched around $76,400—about 6% below its level after the Fed decision—and fell roughly 3% in a day.
The episode in March 2018 played out in minutes: Binance was attacked (but lost no funds), and BTC plunged from $10,740 to $9,690 in a few minutes, a drop of nearly 11%. The total crypto market cap was $400 billion then; today it’s around $2.6 trillion, 6.5 times larger.
The more structural difference is spot ETFs (funds that can be bought through a stock brokerage account): these products now hold around 1.3 million BTC, about 6% of the circulating supply. Those holdings are in the hands of long-term investors, not on exchanges. As the original put it, “panic doesn't hit markets the same way anymore.”
The data suggests $BTC is neutral to slightly bullish in the short term, and neutral on the broader market: prices fell, but didn’t collapse—in other words, buyers are still stepping in. The risk: if ETFs see sustained outflows, or the stolen assets are dumped onto the market on a large scale, the rationale for this resilience falls apart. Next, watch the daily ETF flows.
Two days after the largest crypto theft in history, BTC hasn’t collapsed. Chainalysis and TRM Labs estimate the losses at around $6.4 billion. Yesterday, BTC briefly touched around $76,400—about 6% below its level after the Fed decision—and fell roughly 3% in a day.
The episode in March 2018 played out in minutes: Binance was attacked (but lost no funds), and BTC plunged from $10,740 to $9,690 in a few minutes, a drop of nearly 11%. The total crypto market cap was $400 billion then; today it’s around $2.6 trillion, 6.5 times larger.
The more structural difference is spot ETFs (funds that can be bought through a stock brokerage account): these products now hold around 1.3 million BTC, about 6% of the circulating supply. Those holdings are in the hands of long-term investors, not on exchanges. As the original put it, “panic doesn't hit markets the same way anymore.”
The data suggests $BTC is neutral to slightly bullish in the short term, and neutral on the broader market: prices fell, but didn’t collapse—in other words, buyers are still stepping in. The risk: if ETFs see sustained outflows, or the stolen assets are dumped onto the market on a large scale, the rationale for this resilience falls apart. Next, watch the daily ETF flows.