The PCE data is out: core inflation came in at 3.1%, headline at 3.6%—both exactly as expected. But take a close look at the market reaction: the odds of a December rate hike are stubbornly stuck above 80%. That’s the truly dangerous part.
Inflation is far from dead; it’s just stuck at an elevated level. The Fed’s 10-to-2 vote already showed its hand—the hawks inside are practically itching to hike rates immediately. With the odds of a December hike now above 80%, the biggest macro headwind hasn’t gone away. If anything, it’s ticking like a time bomb. The sword of Damocles hanging over risk assets could fall at any moment.
Take a look at those two community comments in the image—they’re very insightful.
The first says volatility and price reactions have faded since the hawkish statement came out. What does that mean? Everyone already knew the Fed would sound hawkish, and the market had already sold off in anticipation. We’re now in a brief “vacuum after the bad news is out.” The second says that keeping a December rate hike on the table puts pressure on risk assets. In other words, prices may not have much room to fall in the short term, but that doesn’t mean they’ll rise; there simply aren’t enough new buyers to push them higher.
Back to our charts: BTC is down just 0.03%, lying there like a dead fish. There’s no volume—bulls are out of ammo, and bears are waiting for the Fed’s December decision.
At this level, the full set of moving averages is pressing down from above, while a cluster of liquidation zones for bulls lies below. Tonight and over the weekend, we’ll probably see low-volume sideways trading that wears down your nerves.
Our trading strategy has to be absolutely ruthless:
First, do not chase shorts under any circumstances. The price has already fallen a lot, and if you short here, even a small rebound could wipe you out.
Second, keep a close eye on key liquidation zones below, such as the 76,000–76,800 area for BTC. If price crashes through this zone on high volume, that would signal panic selling and a cascade of liquidations. You can follow the move with a small short position and capture some of the resulting liquidation profits.
Third, if price rebounds above 79,000 but can’t hold, and a long upper wick appears, we’ll go short from higher up.
The key right now is to endure. With no new money coming in, it’s all just a battle over existing positions. Keep your hands off the buttons, cut your position size to a minimum, and hold onto your cash. Once this low-volume grind is over and expectations of a December rate hike have been fully priced in, we can get back in and pick up the bloodied chips. Stay alive. #pce $BTC
Inflation is far from dead; it’s just stuck at an elevated level. The Fed’s 10-to-2 vote already showed its hand—the hawks inside are practically itching to hike rates immediately. With the odds of a December hike now above 80%, the biggest macro headwind hasn’t gone away. If anything, it’s ticking like a time bomb. The sword of Damocles hanging over risk assets could fall at any moment.
Take a look at those two community comments in the image—they’re very insightful.
The first says volatility and price reactions have faded since the hawkish statement came out. What does that mean? Everyone already knew the Fed would sound hawkish, and the market had already sold off in anticipation. We’re now in a brief “vacuum after the bad news is out.” The second says that keeping a December rate hike on the table puts pressure on risk assets. In other words, prices may not have much room to fall in the short term, but that doesn’t mean they’ll rise; there simply aren’t enough new buyers to push them higher.
Back to our charts: BTC is down just 0.03%, lying there like a dead fish. There’s no volume—bulls are out of ammo, and bears are waiting for the Fed’s December decision.
At this level, the full set of moving averages is pressing down from above, while a cluster of liquidation zones for bulls lies below. Tonight and over the weekend, we’ll probably see low-volume sideways trading that wears down your nerves.
Our trading strategy has to be absolutely ruthless:
First, do not chase shorts under any circumstances. The price has already fallen a lot, and if you short here, even a small rebound could wipe you out.
Second, keep a close eye on key liquidation zones below, such as the 76,000–76,800 area for BTC. If price crashes through this zone on high volume, that would signal panic selling and a cascade of liquidations. You can follow the move with a small short position and capture some of the resulting liquidation profits.
Third, if price rebounds above 79,000 but can’t hold, and a long upper wick appears, we’ll go short from higher up.
The key right now is to endure. With no new money coming in, it’s all just a battle over existing positions. Keep your hands off the buttons, cut your position size to a minimum, and hold onto your cash. Once this low-volume grind is over and expectations of a December rate hike have been fully priced in, we can get back in and pick up the bloodied chips. Stay alive. #pce $BTC