Dropped below $77,000, then bounced back; $BTC is waiting for the midterm elections
On Thursday, Bitcoin briefly fell below $77,000 before quickly recovering. CoinShares characterized this as “resilience” in its market report yesterday, saying: Bitcoin “has neither broken out to the upside nor seen a sharp decline; its relative ability to hold up is one of the more positive signals in the current market.”
The backdrop: the Fed kept interest rates at 3.75% to 4.00%. Chair Warsh said the effects of the September rate hikes were starting to show, but gave no indication that the tightening cycle was over. Inflation is still here: U.S. CPI (Consumer Price Index) rose 3.7% year over year in September, while the latest survey of businesses’ selling prices showed the fastest increase since August 2022. Overall, positioning is defensive and risk appetite is limited.
The data point to a short-term neutral-to-bullish outlook for $BTC : the current price is $77,485.7, down 4.83% over 24 hours, while the funding rate is +0.01%, unchanged from usual—long traders aren’t rushing to add leverage. On the other hand, if inflation continues to accelerate and rate expectations climb further, the case for relative resilience could break down. Next, watch the 24-hour low of $76,444 and fund flows ahead of the midterm elections.
On Thursday, Bitcoin briefly fell below $77,000 before quickly recovering. CoinShares characterized this as “resilience” in its market report yesterday, saying: Bitcoin “has neither broken out to the upside nor seen a sharp decline; its relative ability to hold up is one of the more positive signals in the current market.”
The backdrop: the Fed kept interest rates at 3.75% to 4.00%. Chair Warsh said the effects of the September rate hikes were starting to show, but gave no indication that the tightening cycle was over. Inflation is still here: U.S. CPI (Consumer Price Index) rose 3.7% year over year in September, while the latest survey of businesses’ selling prices showed the fastest increase since August 2022. Overall, positioning is defensive and risk appetite is limited.
The data point to a short-term neutral-to-bullish outlook for $BTC : the current price is $77,485.7, down 4.83% over 24 hours, while the funding rate is +0.01%, unchanged from usual—long traders aren’t rushing to add leverage. On the other hand, if inflation continues to accelerate and rate expectations climb further, the case for relative resilience could break down. Next, watch the 24-hour low of $76,444 and fund flows ahead of the midterm elections.