At 11 a.m. Baghdad time today, Bitcoin options worth about $10.9 billion and Ethereum options worth $776 million expired on Deribit right on schedule. ETH’s max pain was pinned at $2,500, but the spot price was only $2,226.7—the options market’s pin was stuck on the bears’ side.
According to Deribit data, among the contracts expiring today, the BTC put/call ratio was 0.53 and ETH’s was 0.77. The bears weren’t overwhelmingly dominant, yet prices still didn’t move toward max pain.
The spot price is $2,226.7, down 5.87% over 24 hours, with a range of $2,183.06 to $2,370.84. It’s still a long way from the $2,500 max pain level, like a light hanging from the ceiling—visible, but out of reach.
I think the real focus of this options-expiry drama isn’t today, but next week: with the U.S. midterm elections approaching on November 3, whether options market makers wait for the results before repositioning will determine whether volatility contracts or expands next week.
The invalidation condition is clear: if ETH’s daily close reclaims $2,500, my “max pain resistance” thesis is off the table. Conversely, if it breaks below the low of $2,183.06, the next level to watch is $2,100.
This is analysis, not a trade signal. Decide for yourself how much risk to take.
Which way do you think it’ll go: back to $2,500 next week, or below $2,183 first?
$ETH $BTC
#以太坊 #OptionsExpiry
According to Deribit data, among the contracts expiring today, the BTC put/call ratio was 0.53 and ETH’s was 0.77. The bears weren’t overwhelmingly dominant, yet prices still didn’t move toward max pain.
The spot price is $2,226.7, down 5.87% over 24 hours, with a range of $2,183.06 to $2,370.84. It’s still a long way from the $2,500 max pain level, like a light hanging from the ceiling—visible, but out of reach.
I think the real focus of this options-expiry drama isn’t today, but next week: with the U.S. midterm elections approaching on November 3, whether options market makers wait for the results before repositioning will determine whether volatility contracts or expands next week.
The invalidation condition is clear: if ETH’s daily close reclaims $2,500, my “max pain resistance” thesis is off the table. Conversely, if it breaks below the low of $2,183.06, the next level to watch is $2,100.
This is analysis, not a trade signal. Decide for yourself how much risk to take.
Which way do you think it’ll go: back to $2,500 next week, or below $2,183 first?
$ETH $BTC
#以太坊 #OptionsExpiry
