Watching the $SOL contract today is more striking than looking at the price itself: open interest is being unwound, while retail traders’ long/short ratio has climbed back up.
Spot is around 95.3, down about 7% over 24 hours. It briefly touched a high of 103 during the day, then plunged overnight to 92.34 before finding support. In the evening, it gave back its gains from around 98 and fell to 94–95. The derivatives market was even livelier: perpetual futures volume was around $3.5 billion, compared with just about $470 million in spot volume. Open interest value fell from a peak of roughly $925 million over the past 36 hours to around $840–850 million. The coin-denominated peak was about 9.18 million tokens; it’s now around 8.87 million. Money is flowing out. But the market-wide account long/short ratio surged to about 3.57 in the early hours, fell to 2.82 in the afternoon, and has now climbed back to around 3.13. The top-trader position long/short ratio fell from about 2.79 to around 1.95, then recovered to about 2.46 in the evening. Funding rates are still positive, at roughly 0.01%—longs are paying. Meanwhile, $NEAR is showing a clearer picture: over the past 36 hours, open interest in coins has fallen by about 18%, and the account long/short ratio has dropped from around 1.38 to 1.16. Leverage is coming off on the L1 side, but SOL retail traders haven’t fully joined in this liquidation.
My point is simple: don’t treat a rebound above 92 as confirmation that the price has stabilized. At these levels, if 92.3 gets breached again, let the long positions keep closing. If you really want to turn bullish, the price needs to reclaim the 98 area first—and the account long/short ratio must stop climbing toward 3.5. For now, I’m only reducing my derivatives positions, not adding to them. I’ll wait for the retail long/short ratio to fall back from around 3 and for open interest to stop rebuilding toward its peak before considering whether to buy in lightly.
The Fear and Greed Index is still at 30. Cash is worth more than rushing to get in.
Spot is around 95.3, down about 7% over 24 hours. It briefly touched a high of 103 during the day, then plunged overnight to 92.34 before finding support. In the evening, it gave back its gains from around 98 and fell to 94–95. The derivatives market was even livelier: perpetual futures volume was around $3.5 billion, compared with just about $470 million in spot volume. Open interest value fell from a peak of roughly $925 million over the past 36 hours to around $840–850 million. The coin-denominated peak was about 9.18 million tokens; it’s now around 8.87 million. Money is flowing out. But the market-wide account long/short ratio surged to about 3.57 in the early hours, fell to 2.82 in the afternoon, and has now climbed back to around 3.13. The top-trader position long/short ratio fell from about 2.79 to around 1.95, then recovered to about 2.46 in the evening. Funding rates are still positive, at roughly 0.01%—longs are paying. Meanwhile, $NEAR is showing a clearer picture: over the past 36 hours, open interest in coins has fallen by about 18%, and the account long/short ratio has dropped from around 1.38 to 1.16. Leverage is coming off on the L1 side, but SOL retail traders haven’t fully joined in this liquidation.
My point is simple: don’t treat a rebound above 92 as confirmation that the price has stabilized. At these levels, if 92.3 gets breached again, let the long positions keep closing. If you really want to turn bullish, the price needs to reclaim the 98 area first—and the account long/short ratio must stop climbing toward 3.5. For now, I’m only reducing my derivatives positions, not adding to them. I’ll wait for the retail long/short ratio to fall back from around 3 and for open interest to stop rebuilding toward its peak before considering whether to buy in lightly.
The Fear and Greed Index is still at 30. Cash is worth more than rushing to get in.
