Today, I’m only discussing three points about futures.
In the futures market, I only look at how crowded positions are—not chat messages.
For futures, I only care about three sets of numbers. Everything else is noise.
1. BTC 76767, 24h range 76500-81971, change -4.77%.
2. BTC open interest notional: 7.47 billion USD, 24h -4.89%
3. Overall account long/short ratio: 2.62
My take: The funding rate at 0.0100% is close to zero, and the long/short ratio is 2.62. Leverage hasn’t picked a side. If it hasn’t picked a side, don’t use high leverage to pick one for it.
Execution range (based on current price ± structure, not an old chart):
- Momentum zone: consider chasing only after it holds above 77,381; without a hold, it’s a false breakout
- Buy on a pullback: 75,846-76,306; don’t buy if support breaks
- No-trade zone: if the 1h candle closes below 75,385, skip this trade
My position: I don’t try to catch the first knife. Until the drop is accompanied by a decline in open interest, buying on the way down is catching a falling knife.
Data: Binance spot 24h / Binance USDⓈ-M / Yahoo daily (5-day change) / altme_fng / mempool_fees / defillama_chains / coingecko_trending. I don’t fill in missing numbers.
When meme coins aren’t outperforming BTC, are you still holding them?
#BTC #合约风控 #Trading Watch
Key takeaway: OI is the notional value of open positions, not trading volume.
Food for thought: Fear & Greed >75: things are getting lively; don’t add the first tranche of leverage.
Data card (from the same update as the main text; missing values are marked with a dash):
BTC 76,767 -4.77% Binance spot 24h
ETH 2,219 -4.99% ETH/BTC 0.02891
S&P 500 7,604 -0.26% Yahoo 5-day
Nasdaq 25,539 -1.60% Yahoo 5-day
Dollar 102 +0.08% DXY 5-day
VIX 19.57 +6.42% Yahoo
Funding rate 0.0100% Open interest 7.47B (24h -4.89) Long/short 2.6166 Binance USDⓈ-M
Personal opinion; figures are from the sources listed in the main text. This is not a trade instruction.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
In the futures market, I only look at how crowded positions are—not chat messages.
For futures, I only care about three sets of numbers. Everything else is noise.
1. BTC 76767, 24h range 76500-81971, change -4.77%.
2. BTC open interest notional: 7.47 billion USD, 24h -4.89%
3. Overall account long/short ratio: 2.62
My take: The funding rate at 0.0100% is close to zero, and the long/short ratio is 2.62. Leverage hasn’t picked a side. If it hasn’t picked a side, don’t use high leverage to pick one for it.
Execution range (based on current price ± structure, not an old chart):
- Momentum zone: consider chasing only after it holds above 77,381; without a hold, it’s a false breakout
- Buy on a pullback: 75,846-76,306; don’t buy if support breaks
- No-trade zone: if the 1h candle closes below 75,385, skip this trade
My position: I don’t try to catch the first knife. Until the drop is accompanied by a decline in open interest, buying on the way down is catching a falling knife.
Data: Binance spot 24h / Binance USDⓈ-M / Yahoo daily (5-day change) / altme_fng / mempool_fees / defillama_chains / coingecko_trending. I don’t fill in missing numbers.
When meme coins aren’t outperforming BTC, are you still holding them?
#BTC #合约风控 #Trading Watch
Key takeaway: OI is the notional value of open positions, not trading volume.
Food for thought: Fear & Greed >75: things are getting lively; don’t add the first tranche of leverage.
Data card (from the same update as the main text; missing values are marked with a dash):
BTC 76,767 -4.77% Binance spot 24h
ETH 2,219 -4.99% ETH/BTC 0.02891
S&P 500 7,604 -0.26% Yahoo 5-day
Nasdaq 25,539 -1.60% Yahoo 5-day
Dollar 102 +0.08% DXY 5-day
VIX 19.57 +6.42% Yahoo
Funding rate 0.0100% Open interest 7.47B (24h -4.89) Long/short 2.6166 Binance USDⓈ-M
Personal opinion; figures are from the sources listed in the main text. This is not a trade instruction.
$BTC $ETH $SOL