Inflation didn’t come in hotter than expected, so can crypto finally breathe easy?
Not quite. That’s not the right way to read it. On October 29, U.S. data showed September core PCE inflation rose 3.1% year over year, while headline PCE rose 3.6%. Month over month, they increased by 0.3% and 0.5%, respectively. The figures were in line with expectations, but inflation is still some distance from the 2% target.
In October, the Fed voted 10–2 to hold rates at 3.75%–4.00%, with Cook and Hammack supporting a 25-basis-point hike. After the data came out, market bets on a December hike briefly topped 80%. Note the word “briefly”—that probability can change, and no hike has happened yet.
I think the most important distinction for crypto right now is between “things aren’t getting worse” and “things are starting to get better.” This report brought no additional shock, but it also didn’t provide the hoped-for justification for easing. Just because the figures were in line with expectations doesn’t mean they’re automatically bullish.
Next, I’ll be watching Treasury yields, the dollar, and whether capital can keep flowing back into crypto markets. A rebound is possible, but whether it can last depends on real buying pressure. A rally can’t be sustained by simply saying, “The bad news is out of the way.” #瑞士首只现货比特币ETF预计11月上市
Not quite. That’s not the right way to read it. On October 29, U.S. data showed September core PCE inflation rose 3.1% year over year, while headline PCE rose 3.6%. Month over month, they increased by 0.3% and 0.5%, respectively. The figures were in line with expectations, but inflation is still some distance from the 2% target.
In October, the Fed voted 10–2 to hold rates at 3.75%–4.00%, with Cook and Hammack supporting a 25-basis-point hike. After the data came out, market bets on a December hike briefly topped 80%. Note the word “briefly”—that probability can change, and no hike has happened yet.
I think the most important distinction for crypto right now is between “things aren’t getting worse” and “things are starting to get better.” This report brought no additional shock, but it also didn’t provide the hoped-for justification for easing. Just because the figures were in line with expectations doesn’t mean they’re automatically bullish.
Next, I’ll be watching Treasury yields, the dollar, and whether capital can keep flowing back into crypto markets. A rebound is possible, but whether it can last depends on real buying pressure. A rally can’t be sustained by simply saying, “The bad news is out of the way.” #瑞士首只现货比特币ETF预计11月上市
