To the New Humanity of a New World ~ “Hold Steady”
The Fed kept the federal funds target range at 3.75%–4.00%.
The decision is in. The real message is in the vote.
10–2. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack favored another 25-basis-point rate hike. The majority chose to hold steady. The minority had already raised their hands for a hike.
The statement was clear: economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace, while inflation remains elevated. Keeping rates unchanged does not mean the pressure has disappeared.
Some traders read this as a “hawkish hold” and are betting that a rate hike may still come before year-end.
That is the market narrative, not official forward guidance.
Data also spoke that day. The U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose to 91.7 in October, above market expectations of around 81.0. The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%. Australia’s annual inflation rate rose to around 4.3% in September.
After-hours earnings pulled in two directions. Microsoft reported revenue of about $92.3 billion, with Azure growth stronger than expected, and its shares rose after hours. Alphabet reported revenue of about $127.58 billion; profits and cash flow fell short of expectations, weighing heavily on its shares after hours.
Rates held steady, growth diverged, and spending remained high.
What truly determines the next move is not a headline saying “hold,” but how capital digests this divergence.
The above is for sharing information and views only, and does not constitute investment advice.
Ten votes to hold, two calling for a hike;
The statement stayed put, but intentions turned.
Confidence rose as earnings split apart;
Watch where the tide goes by where capital flows.
— Mingdao
The Fed kept the federal funds target range at 3.75%–4.00%.
The decision is in. The real message is in the vote.
10–2. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack favored another 25-basis-point rate hike. The majority chose to hold steady. The minority had already raised their hands for a hike.
The statement was clear: economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace, while inflation remains elevated. Keeping rates unchanged does not mean the pressure has disappeared.
Some traders read this as a “hawkish hold” and are betting that a rate hike may still come before year-end.
That is the market narrative, not official forward guidance.
Data also spoke that day. The U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose to 91.7 in October, above market expectations of around 81.0. The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%. Australia’s annual inflation rate rose to around 4.3% in September.
After-hours earnings pulled in two directions. Microsoft reported revenue of about $92.3 billion, with Azure growth stronger than expected, and its shares rose after hours. Alphabet reported revenue of about $127.58 billion; profits and cash flow fell short of expectations, weighing heavily on its shares after hours.
Rates held steady, growth diverged, and spending remained high.
What truly determines the next move is not a headline saying “hold,” but how capital digests this divergence.
The above is for sharing information and views only, and does not constitute investment advice.
Ten votes to hold, two calling for a hike;
The statement stayed put, but intentions turned.
Confidence rose as earnings split apart;
Watch where the tide goes by where capital flows.
— Mingdao