This morning I said last night’s drop had nothing to do with the Fed. Looking back tonight, though, the entire market today was basically being driven by the Binance situation.
First, the latest developments. The official estimate of the impact of this hot-wallet incident has been updated to about $6.3 billion, and around $3 billion has already been frozen on-chain. The follow-up investigation also uncovered more than one point of entry—not just the engineer’s computer initially mentioned. Chainalysis has attributed the incident to the North Korean hacking group TraderTraitor. Officials say the losses will be covered by SAFU and company funds, deposits are operating normally, and the goal is to restore withdrawals within about 45 hours.
Honestly, seeing the reported amount keep climbing from this morning made my heart sink at first. But prices didn’t take another dive 😮
$BTC 24-hour low was around 76,400; it’s now near 77,300, down more than 3% on the day. $ETH 2,231 is down nearly 4%. $BNB was hit hardest, down more than 5% over 24 hours, though it’s rebounded from around 683 this morning to about 700. The Fear & Greed Index fell from 51 the day before yesterday to 30. Sentiment is genuinely fearful, but it hasn’t collapsed.
On the macro front, the Bank of Japan stood pat today, keeping rates at 1.25%. But for the first time, it said underlying inflation had basically reached its 2% target, and one member voted to raise rates straight to 1.5%. The door to a yen rate hike is gradually opening. I’m making a note of that.
Over the weekend and into next week, I’m watching just a few things:
- Whether withdrawals are restored on time, and whether there’s a queue of large withdrawals afterward
- The updated proof of reserves once the fixes are complete
- The stolen ETH is still sitting on-chain. If it starts moving out, the market will be very sensitive
- HYPE’s November 6 unlock
I’ve thought through both scenarios. If withdrawals are restored smoothly and the proof of reserves checks out, today’s low of 76,400 is probably the bottom for this event-driven sell-off. First, we’ll see if prices can get back above 80,000. On the other hand, if the restoration is delayed or the stolen funds are dumped on the market all at once, 76,400 may not hold. With weekend liquidity thin, a sharp drop could come even faster. I’m not betting on either outcome; I’ll wait until we know what happens with withdrawals.
One question: On the day withdrawals are restored, will you move your funds to your own wallet right away, or leave them where they are?
#BTC #ETH #币安 #MarketAnalysis
The above is only my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Markets carry risks.
First, the latest developments. The official estimate of the impact of this hot-wallet incident has been updated to about $6.3 billion, and around $3 billion has already been frozen on-chain. The follow-up investigation also uncovered more than one point of entry—not just the engineer’s computer initially mentioned. Chainalysis has attributed the incident to the North Korean hacking group TraderTraitor. Officials say the losses will be covered by SAFU and company funds, deposits are operating normally, and the goal is to restore withdrawals within about 45 hours.
Honestly, seeing the reported amount keep climbing from this morning made my heart sink at first. But prices didn’t take another dive 😮
$BTC 24-hour low was around 76,400; it’s now near 77,300, down more than 3% on the day. $ETH 2,231 is down nearly 4%. $BNB was hit hardest, down more than 5% over 24 hours, though it’s rebounded from around 683 this morning to about 700. The Fear & Greed Index fell from 51 the day before yesterday to 30. Sentiment is genuinely fearful, but it hasn’t collapsed.
On the macro front, the Bank of Japan stood pat today, keeping rates at 1.25%. But for the first time, it said underlying inflation had basically reached its 2% target, and one member voted to raise rates straight to 1.5%. The door to a yen rate hike is gradually opening. I’m making a note of that.
Over the weekend and into next week, I’m watching just a few things:
- Whether withdrawals are restored on time, and whether there’s a queue of large withdrawals afterward
- The updated proof of reserves once the fixes are complete
- The stolen ETH is still sitting on-chain. If it starts moving out, the market will be very sensitive
- HYPE’s November 6 unlock
I’ve thought through both scenarios. If withdrawals are restored smoothly and the proof of reserves checks out, today’s low of 76,400 is probably the bottom for this event-driven sell-off. First, we’ll see if prices can get back above 80,000. On the other hand, if the restoration is delayed or the stolen funds are dumped on the market all at once, 76,400 may not hold. With weekend liquidity thin, a sharp drop could come even faster. I’m not betting on either outcome; I’ll wait until we know what happens with withdrawals.
One question: On the day withdrawals are restored, will you move your funds to your own wallet right away, or leave them where they are?
#BTC #ETH #币安 #MarketAnalysis
The above is only my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Markets carry risks.