I. Analysis of Ethereum Market Trends

As of the afternoon of October 30, Beijing time, Ethereum is currently priced at $2,245, down approximately 3.25% over the past 24 hours, a slightly larger decline than Bitcoin's. This downturn was also affected by the Binance security incident, but Ethereum is facing additional pressure from DeFi protocol freezes. Attackers used the Aave protocol to convert stolen stablecoins into ETH, prompting Aave's risk committee to urgently freeze hundreds of lending markets across multiple chains. On-chain liquidity has contracted sharply. Looking at the hourly candlesticks, Ethereum has declined and then stabilized over the past five periods. The price opened at $2,237, briefly dipped to a low of $2,221.27, then rebounded to $2,249.60, before finally falling back to around $2,235. Trading volume gradually shrank from $37 million to $17 million, indicating strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market.

II. Technical Indicator Analysis

In terms of moving averages, Ethereum's price is also below all major moving averages. The 7-period moving average is at $2,238, the 25-period moving average at $2,272, and the 99-period moving average as high as $2,318, showing a clear bearish alignment. The upper Bollinger Band is around $2,332, the middle band around $2,254, and the lower band around $2,176. The price is fluctuating within a narrow range near the middle band, and volatility is contracting. The MACD indicator is showing positive changes: although the MACD line remains negative at -21.55, the histogram has turned positive for two consecutive periods, with the latest reading at 2.06, indicating that bearish momentum is weakening. The 6-period RSI is at 44.48, in a neutral-to-weak zone. Notably, the Stochastic RSI has risen to 91.15, entering overbought territory and potentially facing short-term pullback pressure. For the KDJ indicator, the K value is 55.83, the D value is 58.64, and the J value is 50.20. The three lines are converging, suggesting a directional move is approaching.

III. Market Sentiment Analysis

Ethereum market sentiment is currently being pulled in opposite directions by bearish and bullish factors. On the bearish side, the cascading freezes in DeFi lending markets are the biggest source of uncertainty. LlamaRisk has proposed reducing credit limits for 27 reserves and removing approximately $3.8 billion in unused credit, which means on-chain capital efficiency will decline further. In addition, Ethereum ETFs saw net outflows of $105 million on October 29, as institutional funds continue to withdraw. On the bullish side, ICE, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, announced a partnership with Hyperliquid to enter the U.S. perpetual futures market, bringing a positive regulatory-compliance signal to the derivatives market. Ethereum's price found support and rebounded after testing the lower Bollinger Band at $2,194, indicating strong buying interest at that level. Overall, Ethereum is likely to remain under pressure in the short term, but a recovery may be possible once risks associated with DeFi protocols become more manageable. Investors should closely monitor the progress of unfreezing Aave and other protocols, as well as changes in ETF fund flows.

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