BTC broke straight below 78000 today, hovering around 77500.
Three days ago, I said to wait for confirmation before entering. That was because the structure of the rebound from 84898 looked terrible—there wasn’t a single 4H bullish candle that closed above 80850, and every rebound was low quality. Today’s drop simply finished the move lower that was due.
The question now isn’t whether it’s fallen enough to buy the dip. It’s: can 76500 hold?
This was last Thursday’s 4H low, and the only level that formed support during the entire downtrend. Price rebounded from 76500 to 81900 before pulling back again, which shows that large institutions were willing to buy around 76500—but that was a week ago.
My view: if BTC can move sideways in the 77000–77500 area for more than 4 hours without sustained heavy sell orders hitting the market, there may be a chance to short a rebound near 78800–79000, around the previous 4H OB zone. The reason is simple: rebounds in a descending channel are shorting opportunities, unless you see a 4H structural reversal (Higher Low + Higher High).
What about the conditions for going long? There are some, but they’re demanding: we’d need a stop hunt below 76500 (for example, a move down to 75500–76000), followed by a quick reclaim of 76500 and a signal that a false breakdown is kicking off a bullish move. These opportunities are few and far between, and today isn’t the time.
FR is now extremely low, close to zero, which indicates that the futures market isn’t overly crowded. This isn’t a sign of an impending liquidation-driven crash. The Kronos model gives p_up=0.875, but the regime assessment is CHOP_MID—which means a rebound is likely, but afterward, price is more likely to keep chopping around. It’s not a signal that a major rally is starting.
So here’s the game plan for today: wait. Don’t chase the drop or buy the dip; watch to see whether 76500 holds. If it rebounds to 78800, look to short. If it breaks 76500 and drops to 75500, consider testing a long position.
ETH is falling more than BTC (-3.97% vs -3.42%), showing that the market is voting with its feet—in a risk-off mood, ETH is moving down faster than BTC. Today, watch whether the 2200 level can act as support for ETH.
Did you chase the drop today? Let’s talk in the comments—I’d like to see where everyone’s stop-losses are.
Follow me for livestreams and SMC lessons every night at 21:00.
🌿 Zhao, Unannounced | Not financial advice
Three days ago, I said to wait for confirmation before entering. That was because the structure of the rebound from 84898 looked terrible—there wasn’t a single 4H bullish candle that closed above 80850, and every rebound was low quality. Today’s drop simply finished the move lower that was due.
The question now isn’t whether it’s fallen enough to buy the dip. It’s: can 76500 hold?
This was last Thursday’s 4H low, and the only level that formed support during the entire downtrend. Price rebounded from 76500 to 81900 before pulling back again, which shows that large institutions were willing to buy around 76500—but that was a week ago.
My view: if BTC can move sideways in the 77000–77500 area for more than 4 hours without sustained heavy sell orders hitting the market, there may be a chance to short a rebound near 78800–79000, around the previous 4H OB zone. The reason is simple: rebounds in a descending channel are shorting opportunities, unless you see a 4H structural reversal (Higher Low + Higher High).
What about the conditions for going long? There are some, but they’re demanding: we’d need a stop hunt below 76500 (for example, a move down to 75500–76000), followed by a quick reclaim of 76500 and a signal that a false breakdown is kicking off a bullish move. These opportunities are few and far between, and today isn’t the time.
FR is now extremely low, close to zero, which indicates that the futures market isn’t overly crowded. This isn’t a sign of an impending liquidation-driven crash. The Kronos model gives p_up=0.875, but the regime assessment is CHOP_MID—which means a rebound is likely, but afterward, price is more likely to keep chopping around. It’s not a signal that a major rally is starting.
So here’s the game plan for today: wait. Don’t chase the drop or buy the dip; watch to see whether 76500 holds. If it rebounds to 78800, look to short. If it breaks 76500 and drops to 75500, consider testing a long position.
ETH is falling more than BTC (-3.97% vs -3.42%), showing that the market is voting with its feet—in a risk-off mood, ETH is moving down faster than BTC. Today, watch whether the 2200 level can act as support for ETH.
Did you chase the drop today? Let’s talk in the comments—I’d like to see where everyone’s stop-losses are.
Follow me for livestreams and SMC lessons every night at 21:00.
🌿 Zhao, Unannounced | Not financial advice