AVAX’s price position on October 30 is worth examining on its own. Here’s the conclusion up front: the break below support is not just a one-day bout of sentiment—the flow of funds had already stalled for half a month.
I. Price and position
A CoinGecko snapshot at 00:29 UTC on October 30 showed AVAX at about $8.06, down approximately 10.45% over 24 hours and 58.51% over the past year, and about 94% below its all-time high of $144.96 in November 2021. The same snapshot put its market cap at about $3.58 billion, ranking it 29th, with 24-hour trading volume of about $290.2 million, a circulating supply of about 444 million tokens, and a maximum supply of 720 million.
Notably, the key support level of about $8.26 identified by CoinMarketCap on October 28 has been breached. The price is also below the 50-day moving average of about $9.42 and the 200-day moving average of about $9.12. The Fear & Greed Index was 30 over the same period, in the fear zone.
II. Why ETF flows aren’t providing support
Data from SoSoValue shows that demand for U.S. spot Avalanche ETFs had flattened in October: as of October 21, net assets stood at about $55.5 million, with cumulative net inflows of about $31.6 million, but there had been no additional net inflows since October 8. Net assets fell from about $61.5 million on October 6 to about $51.4 million on October 22.
On October 21, Grayscale opened in-kind subscriptions for its Avalanche Staking ETF, with a minimum of about $235,800, but overall activity remained subdued through late October. A new channel has opened, but the funds have not followed through. That is a signal more worth noting than the price itself.
III. Assessment
We can observe three factors pointing in the same direction: the price has broken below support, moving averages are acting as resistance, and ETF net inflows have stalled. In the short term, the key things to confirm are whether AVAX can reclaim the $8.26 level and whether ETFs record their first new net inflow since October 8. Until both of these confirmations appear, the bearish assessment remains unchanged.
#AVAX $AVAX
Just my personal opinion; this does not constitute investment advice.
I. Price and position
A CoinGecko snapshot at 00:29 UTC on October 30 showed AVAX at about $8.06, down approximately 10.45% over 24 hours and 58.51% over the past year, and about 94% below its all-time high of $144.96 in November 2021. The same snapshot put its market cap at about $3.58 billion, ranking it 29th, with 24-hour trading volume of about $290.2 million, a circulating supply of about 444 million tokens, and a maximum supply of 720 million.
Notably, the key support level of about $8.26 identified by CoinMarketCap on October 28 has been breached. The price is also below the 50-day moving average of about $9.42 and the 200-day moving average of about $9.12. The Fear & Greed Index was 30 over the same period, in the fear zone.
II. Why ETF flows aren’t providing support
Data from SoSoValue shows that demand for U.S. spot Avalanche ETFs had flattened in October: as of October 21, net assets stood at about $55.5 million, with cumulative net inflows of about $31.6 million, but there had been no additional net inflows since October 8. Net assets fell from about $61.5 million on October 6 to about $51.4 million on October 22.
On October 21, Grayscale opened in-kind subscriptions for its Avalanche Staking ETF, with a minimum of about $235,800, but overall activity remained subdued through late October. A new channel has opened, but the funds have not followed through. That is a signal more worth noting than the price itself.
III. Assessment
We can observe three factors pointing in the same direction: the price has broken below support, moving averages are acting as resistance, and ETF net inflows have stalled. In the short term, the key things to confirm are whether AVAX can reclaim the $8.26 level and whether ETFs record their first new net inflow since October 8. Until both of these confirmations appear, the bearish assessment remains unchanged.
#AVAX $AVAX
Just my personal opinion; this does not constitute investment advice.
