$APR$INTC The market largely sees Intel’s earnings report as further evidence of “weak tech earnings.” Combined with declines in Amazon and Google, panic is spreading quickly, and Nasdaq futures are down 2%. But I believe this INTC-triggered sell-off is precisely a window to take a contrarian position in the semiconductor cycle—not a signal to flee. There are three reasons: First, the options market shows that implied volatility for near-term INTC puts has surged into the top 10% of its range for the year. Extreme put skew often signals a short-term bottom rather than a top—historically, when this indicator has reached similar levels, the odds of a rebound over the following 20 trading days have exceeded 60%. Second, Intel’s foundry business losses have already been fully priced in by the market. The pessimism implied by the current share price is approaching the valuation floor seen in October 2018, when Intel’s 10nm process was delayed. Investors who bought then went on to earn outsized returns over the next two years. Third, Warren Buffett’s advice that “doing nothing is better than doing something” is especially relevant right now: historical episodes of panic selling in tech stocks—such as after Meta’s disastrous earnings report in 2022—often led investors to miss the mean reversion in the following quarters. BTC is currently at $78,279. Risk assets are falling in tandem, but have not broken below their previous lows, suggesting a liquidity shock rather than a fundamental collapse. What do you think? Feel free to share a different view in the comments.