$PREDICT The reason for the delayed launch has been found: Binance was hacked, which is another major reason
Post
--
诸葛投研
·
--
I’ve finished writing my analysis, but the launch of $PREDICT has been delayed. What should I do—post it or not?
I’m planning to sell $PREDICT as soon as trading opens:
1. Defillama shows that predict.fun brought in $2.01 million in revenue this month, or $24 million annualized. But its market cap is already $1.3 billion, giving it a price-to-earnings ratio of 54.
2. A P/E ratio of 54 is very high. First, current revenue has been inflated by a bubble created by airdrop farmers in the community. Now that the community’s expectations have been dashed, things could get ugly from here. Second, predict.fun has already been integrated into Binance Wallet, so there aren’t many new opportunities for major growth. Its future growth potential is limited.
3. Another major reason is that the project team’s $24 million in annual earnings have nothing to do with $PREDICT . The tokenomics the team has announced don’t include a buyback-and-burn mechanism, so those profits won’t be reflected in the token price.
4. Of course, not holding long term doesn’t mean you can’t hold for a few days. But the community airdrop claim has a somewhat unusual option: “Choose to lock your tokens for one year, but you can change your mind at any time during the first month.” So I suspect the team isn’t planning to pump the price in the first month. In that case, I might as well sell as soon as trading opens.
5. Of course, prediction markets are only just taking off, and what’s really valuable about Predict.fun is that it’s Binance’s favored child, with everyone keeping an eye on it. But $1.3 billion really does seem a bit high. If it were $300 million, I’d definitely hold and watch for a while. Anything above $800 million feels expensive to me.
I’m planning to sell $PREDICT as soon as trading opens:
1. Defillama shows that predict.fun brought in $2.01 million in revenue this month, or $24 million annualized. But its market cap is already $1.3 billion, giving it a price-to-earnings ratio of 54.
2. A P/E ratio of 54 is very high. First, current revenue has been inflated by a bubble created by airdrop farmers in the community. Now that the community’s expectations have been dashed, things could get ugly from here. Second, predict.fun has already been integrated into Binance Wallet, so there aren’t many new opportunities for major growth. Its future growth potential is limited.
3. Another major reason is that the project team’s $24 million in annual earnings have nothing to do with $PREDICT . The tokenomics the team has announced don’t include a buyback-and-burn mechanism, so those profits won’t be reflected in the token price.
4. Of course, not holding long term doesn’t mean you can’t hold for a few days. But the community airdrop claim has a somewhat unusual option: “Choose to lock your tokens for one year, but you can change your mind at any time during the first month.” So I suspect the team isn’t planning to pump the price in the first month. In that case, I might as well sell as soon as trading opens.
5. Of course, prediction markets are only just taking off, and what’s really valuable about Predict.fun is that it’s Binance’s favored child, with everyone keeping an eye on it. But $1.3 billion really does seem a bit high. If it were $300 million, I’d definitely hold and watch for a while. Anything above $800 million feels expensive to me.
