U.S. midterm elections are next Tuesday.
U.S. stocks and crypto have been seesawing these past few days. Honestly, everyone’s just afraid to make a move and is waiting for the results.
If you ask me, this is actually a pretty good window. I looked at the historical data: over the past century or so, U.S. stocks have risen by an average of more than 10% in the year after midterm elections. Since 1980, the gains have been even stronger, close to 20%. Of course, they don’t rise every single time, but most of the time people are terrified before the election and breathe a sigh of relief once it’s over.
The reasoning isn’t complicated. While the election is still up in the air, no one knows what Congress will look like, so people keep their money on the sidelines. Once the results are in, whoever wins, the biggest uncertainty is gone, and the money can get back to work.
The crypto industry has made an extra bet this time, pouring more than $170 million into supporting its preferred candidates, hoping to get that regulatory bill passed after the election.
Bitcoin got knocked down to around $77,000 again today by the news of a hack at Binance, just as everyone’s feeling most skittish ahead of the election. I actually think this is a pretty comfortable level. Once we get through next Tuesday, both U.S. stocks and Bitcoin should be able to catch their breath.
#美国中期选举倒计时，美股博弈窗口已开启？ $BTC
U.S. stocks and crypto have been seesawing these past few days. Honestly, everyone’s just afraid to make a move and is waiting for the results.
If you ask me, this is actually a pretty good window. I looked at the historical data: over the past century or so, U.S. stocks have risen by an average of more than 10% in the year after midterm elections. Since 1980, the gains have been even stronger, close to 20%. Of course, they don’t rise every single time, but most of the time people are terrified before the election and breathe a sigh of relief once it’s over.
The reasoning isn’t complicated. While the election is still up in the air, no one knows what Congress will look like, so people keep their money on the sidelines. Once the results are in, whoever wins, the biggest uncertainty is gone, and the money can get back to work.
The crypto industry has made an extra bet this time, pouring more than $170 million into supporting its preferred candidates, hoping to get that regulatory bill passed after the election.
Bitcoin got knocked down to around $77,000 again today by the news of a hack at Binance, just as everyone’s feeling most skittish ahead of the election. I actually think this is a pretty comfortable level. Once we get through next Tuesday, both U.S. stocks and Bitcoin should be able to catch their breath.
#美国中期选举倒计时，美股博弈窗口已开启？ $BTC
