In my weekly note on the 26th, I wrote: if it breaks down, | 许愿池的樱樱 on Binance Square

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许愿池的樱樱

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In my weekly note on the 26th, I wrote: if it breaks down, watch $80,000; for the weekly close, watch $77,500. Bitcoin was still hovering around $79,500 back then, and I had no idea what exactly might happen over the next few days—an unusual hot-wallet movement, a sentiment-driven sell-off... No one can predict the exact trigger in advance.

But the $77,500 make-or-break line in my framework has already been tested intraday (the current price is around $77,000). The weekly close isn’t due until November 2, so we can’t call the breakdown confirmed yet. But the price moving down along that line has already partly played out.

I’m leaning toward not rushing to buy the dip, and not treating an intraday breach as a final verdict on the weekly chart either. The real alarm bell depends on whether the weekly close is near or below $77,500. Five-Element timing isn’t about making up stories—we can’t know in advance which news event we’ll run into. The line is drawn; the market will show us how it plays out.

What do you think: “intraday scare, weekly close decides,” or “the alarm has already been raised a notch”? Share your thoughts in the comments.

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$BTC

Personal opinion, not investment advice

许愿池的樱樱

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October 26 (Guiyou) | Bearish bias | Watch 80k for a breakdown · 77.5k for the weekly close

The market still looks weak this week (through Monday, 11-02, 08:00, when the weekly candle closes): current price is around 79.5k (Beijing time, 10:24), already well below the add-short zone (83.5–85k). I’d rather not chase shorts in the 79–80.5k no-man’s-land. If looking to short, wait for a rebound toward 81.2–82k to meet resistance, or reassess if the daily close breaks below this week’s low.

The bigger-picture view hasn’t changed. To quickly reiterate: the double top overhead is still at 87,380 / 86,650; whether the weekly close breaks 77,500 will determine if we keep chopping sideways or raise the alert level another notch. The framework’s breakdown confirmation level remains 80,000—and the current price is already hovering below it.

The Frost’s Descent solar term (10-23) has just passed. These few days before the Start of Winter (11-07), when the Hai month begins, are still prone to a market reversal. The current price is about 2.6% above the weekly chart’s critical support line, a narrower margin than last week. For now, it’s holding close to that line—but safety doesn’t mean it’s time to buy the dip.

My leaning: the main scenario is a weak rebound toward 81.2–82k, followed by resistance and a retreat. If the weekly close holds above 79k, treat it as consolidation for now; the bearish framework remains unchanged. The real reason to raise the alert is still a weekly close near or below 77,500. The bearish thesis is invalidated if the weekly chart closes back above 87,380.

These are personal views based on traditional Chinese metaphysics, for reference only. Follow me for future updates.