To the new humanity of a new world ~ “Strong data, Fed holds steady”
The rate decision is now in. The Fed voted 10–2 to maintain the federal funds target range at 3.75%–4.00%.
Two members favored a 25-basis-point rate hike. The statement said economic activity was solid and inflation remained elevated.
The decision itself is no longer news. What’s truly new is the data that came after it.
On October 29, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released its advance estimate: third-quarter GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.4%, up from 2.2% previously and above market expectations of around 3.2%. The official September issue of *Personal Income and Outlays*, released the same day, showed PCE inflation at 3.6% year over year and core PCE inflation at 3.1%.
Growth is solid, and inflation has not gone away.
Labor Department data showed about 194,000 initial jobless claims for the week ending October 24, and about 1.701 million continuing claims for the week ending October 17. The market generally interpreted this as evidence that the labor market remains tight.
On one side, the Fed is holding steady; on the other, the data continue to apply pressure.
Markets are also diverging. According to reports, Alphabet’s post-earnings decline on October 29 weighed on the Nasdaq, while the Russell 2000/IWM outperformed, prompting discussion of a rotation away from mega-cap tech (market figures to be verified).
Trump publicly criticized the Fed for being “unwilling to cut rates,” saying its motives were tied to his political interests. The Fed’s own messaging continued to emphasize its independence and data dependence.
Claims about motives are opinions. The official statement is something else. Don’t conflate the two.
The Bank of Canada’s October 28 statement confirmed a 25-basis-point rate hike, bringing the rate to 2.50%.
The Fed holds steady, data apply pressure, and markets diverge.
What really matters next is not who is calling for rate cuts, but whether the next batch of data will push “holding steady” toward “tightening again.”
The above is for information and sharing of views only, and does not constitute investment advice.
Strong data arrive, but rates stay put;
Ten votes hold the line, resolve still firm.
Tech feels the strain as small caps stir;
The next bell will tell where the tide will turn.
— Mingdao
The rate decision is now in. The Fed voted 10–2 to maintain the federal funds target range at 3.75%–4.00%.
Two members favored a 25-basis-point rate hike. The statement said economic activity was solid and inflation remained elevated.
The decision itself is no longer news. What’s truly new is the data that came after it.
On October 29, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released its advance estimate: third-quarter GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.4%, up from 2.2% previously and above market expectations of around 3.2%. The official September issue of *Personal Income and Outlays*, released the same day, showed PCE inflation at 3.6% year over year and core PCE inflation at 3.1%.
Growth is solid, and inflation has not gone away.
Labor Department data showed about 194,000 initial jobless claims for the week ending October 24, and about 1.701 million continuing claims for the week ending October 17. The market generally interpreted this as evidence that the labor market remains tight.
On one side, the Fed is holding steady; on the other, the data continue to apply pressure.
Markets are also diverging. According to reports, Alphabet’s post-earnings decline on October 29 weighed on the Nasdaq, while the Russell 2000/IWM outperformed, prompting discussion of a rotation away from mega-cap tech (market figures to be verified).
Trump publicly criticized the Fed for being “unwilling to cut rates,” saying its motives were tied to his political interests. The Fed’s own messaging continued to emphasize its independence and data dependence.
Claims about motives are opinions. The official statement is something else. Don’t conflate the two.
The Bank of Canada’s October 28 statement confirmed a 25-basis-point rate hike, bringing the rate to 2.50%.
The Fed holds steady, data apply pressure, and markets diverge.
What really matters next is not who is calling for rate cuts, but whether the next batch of data will push “holding steady” toward “tightening again.”
The above is for information and sharing of views only, and does not constitute investment advice.
Strong data arrive, but rates stay put;
Ten votes hold the line, resolve still firm.
Tech feels the strain as small caps stir;
The next bell will tell where the tide will turn.
— Mingdao