【$BTC Plunges 4.8%: Is 76,700 Support or a Trap?】
##K线结构 #量价关系 #Market Analysis
Yesterday, the most important thing to watch wasn't the size of the drop—it was the volume.
On October 29, the daily candle for $BTC opened at 81,308.9, reached a high of 81,953.7, hit a low of 77,868.4, and closed at 77,962.6, with volume of 20.296 billion. The average daily volume over the previous five days was just 8.520 billion, so this candle's volume ballooned to 2.38 times that level. A nearly 5% drop on 2.4 times the volume isn't a pullback on declining volume—selling pressure simply wasn't absorbed.
The hourly chart is even clearer. The 8 p.m. hourly candle on the 29th opened at 80,809.9, plunged from 80,814.8 to 78,210.3, and closed at 78,819.6. Its volume was 3.499 billion, 4.3 times the 20-hour average of 822 million. One candle wiped out 2,600 points, with almost no meaningful pause along the way.
The next three hourly candles: at 9 p.m., price rebounded to 79,765.3 and closed at 78,996.7 on 1.777 billion in volume; at 10 p.m., volume was 1.213 billion; and at 11 p.m., it was 1.579 billion. Each rebound reached a lower high, and volume couldn't keep up either.
All the moving averages are overhead. 1-hour MA5: 78,375 / MA20: 79,968 / MA50: 80,519; 4-hour MA5: 79,551 / MA20: 80,298 / MA50: 80,746; daily MA5: 79,472 / MA20: 81,370 / MA50: 81,909. The current price of 77,269 is still 1,100 points below even the nearest 1-hour MA5. The bearish moving-average alignment is intact, but the move is also stretched: 1-hour RSI is 27.3, 4-hour RSI is 32.9, and daily RSI is 32.0.
Key levels:
Support: 76,717 (24-hour low) / 76,600 (round-number level);
Resistance: 77,962 (yesterday's 4-hour close) / 78,375 (1-hour MA5) / 79,968 (1-hour MA20) / 80,814 (yesterday's 4-hour high).
My approach: 76,700 is the dividing line between two scenarios. If it holds and the next 4-hour candle closes back above 78,375, that would count as an oversold rebound. If the 1-hour chart continues to post massive volume below 76,700, it would mean yesterday's huge-volume daily candle hasn't run its course yet. After an exceptionally high-volume move, it usually takes two to three hourly candles for the market to digest it. Chasing shorts at this level is painful, but holding longs is painful too. I'm not guessing the direction; I'll wait for price to show it.
$ETH is showing a similar pattern: daily volume was 13.759 billion, 2.16 times the previous five-day average of 6.357 billion. The 8 p.m. hourly candle on the 29th had volume of 3.094 billion, 5.4 times the 20-hour average of 575 million, and a low of 2,196.26. Daily RSI was 25.1. Support: 2,196; resistance: 2,252 (1-hour MA5) / 2,297 (4-hour MA5) / 2,311 (1-hour MA20).
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These are my personal market notes and do not constitute investment advice. Data is from Binance futures, as of 8 a.m. on October 30, 2026.
##K线结构 #量价关系 #Market Analysis
Yesterday, the most important thing to watch wasn't the size of the drop—it was the volume.
On October 29, the daily candle for $BTC opened at 81,308.9, reached a high of 81,953.7, hit a low of 77,868.4, and closed at 77,962.6, with volume of 20.296 billion. The average daily volume over the previous five days was just 8.520 billion, so this candle's volume ballooned to 2.38 times that level. A nearly 5% drop on 2.4 times the volume isn't a pullback on declining volume—selling pressure simply wasn't absorbed.
The hourly chart is even clearer. The 8 p.m. hourly candle on the 29th opened at 80,809.9, plunged from 80,814.8 to 78,210.3, and closed at 78,819.6. Its volume was 3.499 billion, 4.3 times the 20-hour average of 822 million. One candle wiped out 2,600 points, with almost no meaningful pause along the way.
The next three hourly candles: at 9 p.m., price rebounded to 79,765.3 and closed at 78,996.7 on 1.777 billion in volume; at 10 p.m., volume was 1.213 billion; and at 11 p.m., it was 1.579 billion. Each rebound reached a lower high, and volume couldn't keep up either.
All the moving averages are overhead. 1-hour MA5: 78,375 / MA20: 79,968 / MA50: 80,519; 4-hour MA5: 79,551 / MA20: 80,298 / MA50: 80,746; daily MA5: 79,472 / MA20: 81,370 / MA50: 81,909. The current price of 77,269 is still 1,100 points below even the nearest 1-hour MA5. The bearish moving-average alignment is intact, but the move is also stretched: 1-hour RSI is 27.3, 4-hour RSI is 32.9, and daily RSI is 32.0.
Key levels:
Support: 76,717 (24-hour low) / 76,600 (round-number level);
Resistance: 77,962 (yesterday's 4-hour close) / 78,375 (1-hour MA5) / 79,968 (1-hour MA20) / 80,814 (yesterday's 4-hour high).
My approach: 76,700 is the dividing line between two scenarios. If it holds and the next 4-hour candle closes back above 78,375, that would count as an oversold rebound. If the 1-hour chart continues to post massive volume below 76,700, it would mean yesterday's huge-volume daily candle hasn't run its course yet. After an exceptionally high-volume move, it usually takes two to three hourly candles for the market to digest it. Chasing shorts at this level is painful, but holding longs is painful too. I'm not guessing the direction; I'll wait for price to show it.
$ETH is showing a similar pattern: daily volume was 13.759 billion, 2.16 times the previous five-day average of 6.357 billion. The 8 p.m. hourly candle on the 29th had volume of 3.094 billion, 5.4 times the 20-hour average of 575 million, and a low of 2,196.26. Daily RSI was 25.1. Support: 2,196; resistance: 2,252 (1-hour MA5) / 2,297 (4-hour MA5) / 2,311 (1-hour MA20).
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These are my personal market notes and do not constitute investment advice. Data is from Binance futures, as of 8 a.m. on October 30, 2026.