Tokyo CPI just out: Headline 2.8%, Core down to 2.6% | BOJ day today
[Fact | Statistics Bureau of Japan, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, 10/30 mid-month flash report]
• Tokyo’s 23 wards all-items index: 103.5, up 2.8% year on year (+2.7% in September), up 0.5% month on month on a seasonally adjusted basis
• Excluding fresh food (Core): 103.3, up 2.6% year on year (+2.7% in September); excluding fresh food and energy (Core-Core): up 2.6% year on year (+2.9% in September)
• Pushing prices up: fresh food (vegetables +10.5%, fish and seafood +14.2%), accommodation, etc.; weighing prices down: rice and other cereals -7.2%, childcare fee cuts under government policy; energy turned positive year on year, at around +2.2%
[View] Headline edged up, but both core measures eased, showing a split between “food-driven volatility vs. underlying cooling.” With the BOJ Outlook Report and Governor Ueda’s press conference today, the market is more focused on whether Core can hold around 2% than on a single month’s Headline.
[Opportunity/Risk] If the Outlook stresses that the inflation target has essentially been achieved and uses dovish language, the yen and Japanese government bond yields may come under pressure, benefiting risk appetite. If it emphasizes upside risks or hints at a December rate-hike path, USD/JPY and global stocks and bonds could be repriced.
How will tonight’s Outlook Report interpret this CPI data? Do you put more faith in Headline or Core?
#宏观 #日本 #CPI #BOJ
$BTC $ETH
For reference only; this does not constitute investment advice
[Fact | Statistics Bureau of Japan, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, 10/30 mid-month flash report]
• Tokyo’s 23 wards all-items index: 103.5, up 2.8% year on year (+2.7% in September), up 0.5% month on month on a seasonally adjusted basis
• Excluding fresh food (Core): 103.3, up 2.6% year on year (+2.7% in September); excluding fresh food and energy (Core-Core): up 2.6% year on year (+2.9% in September)
• Pushing prices up: fresh food (vegetables +10.5%, fish and seafood +14.2%), accommodation, etc.; weighing prices down: rice and other cereals -7.2%, childcare fee cuts under government policy; energy turned positive year on year, at around +2.2%
[View] Headline edged up, but both core measures eased, showing a split between “food-driven volatility vs. underlying cooling.” With the BOJ Outlook Report and Governor Ueda’s press conference today, the market is more focused on whether Core can hold around 2% than on a single month’s Headline.
[Opportunity/Risk] If the Outlook stresses that the inflation target has essentially been achieved and uses dovish language, the yen and Japanese government bond yields may come under pressure, benefiting risk appetite. If it emphasizes upside risks or hints at a December rate-hike path, USD/JPY and global stocks and bonds could be repriced.
How will tonight’s Outlook Report interpret this CPI data? Do you put more faith in Headline or Core?
#宏观 #日本 #CPI #BOJ
$BTC $ETH
For reference only; this does not constitute investment advice
