BTC plunges toward “max pain” ahead of options expiry. Around $11 billion worth of BTC options, totaling 135,000 BTC, expire on Deribit on Friday—about one-third of the exchange’s BTC options open interest (Decrypt, October 30).
Key figures: max pain is $78,000, while the market price was around $81,500 at the time of writing. About 86% of these contracts were out of the money. Their notional value was $11 billion, but settling at the price at the time would move only about $130 million. There were 88,700 calls and 46,500 puts, for a put/call ratio of 0.52. The heaviest call bets were at $95,000 and $100,000, while the largest cluster of puts was at $70,000. Today, BTC has fallen to around $78,900, almost right at max pain.
Personal view: Hedging around expiration can amplify volatility; the key is that this is a reference point, not a prediction. Binance snapshot at 05:00 on October 30: BTC at $78,906 (-3.004%), with a 24-hour range of $78,297.05–$81,971; ETH at $2,251.07 (-4.726%). A long setup would require a 4-hour close above $79,600 and a retest that holds above $78,900, with targets at $80,500 and $81,400, and a stop at $78,200. If BTC breaks below $78,297 and fails to reclaim it on a rebound, watch $77,500 and $76,500, with a stop at $79,800.
With expiration near max pain, how would you manage your position?
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The above content does not constitute investment advice