Everyone, I’m about to open a large long position on $NEAR .
Take profit: 4.689
Stop loss: 4.375 👇
You may be wondering the obvious question: why am I going long here?
The latest 15-minute candle closed at 4.467. The 20-day range is 4.2 to 6.024, and the current price is sitting at the 14.6th percentile.
There isn’t much room left to fall.
The 7-day change is +1.48%—it’s been grinding sideways for seven days. Holders haven’t bailed, there’s support in that lower area, and the price just doesn’t seem able to fall any further.
I was taken aback when I first saw the 14.6th percentile, and had to check it twice before I believed it.
Now, let’s look at the placement discipline.
The average daily volatility, based on daily-boundary ATR14, is about 8.90%. Both my take-profit and stop-loss are set within that range—I never place them somewhere volatility can’t reach.
When liquidity is thin, a single wick can trigger a stop loss, so I don’t dare set this one too wide.
Take profit is +4.97% from the current price; stop loss is -2.06%.
That gives this trade a risk-reward ratio of about 2.41.
It’s like a spring compressed all the way down: the first bounce comes from the compression, not from a new trend.
I’m betting it’ll catch its breath as it bounces off the floor, not that it’ll reverse course. I know the difference.
If it moves up, I’ll take half off at 4.689 and see whether the rest can break out of the range.
Do you think a -2.06% stop loss is too tight? Let’s discuss in the comments.
$BEAT $BULLA
#NEAR #BEAT #Cryptocurrency
The above is a record of my personal trading system and observations of market data. It does not constitute investment advice.
Take profit: 4.689
Stop loss: 4.375 👇
You may be wondering the obvious question: why am I going long here?
The latest 15-minute candle closed at 4.467. The 20-day range is 4.2 to 6.024, and the current price is sitting at the 14.6th percentile.
There isn’t much room left to fall.
The 7-day change is +1.48%—it’s been grinding sideways for seven days. Holders haven’t bailed, there’s support in that lower area, and the price just doesn’t seem able to fall any further.
I was taken aback when I first saw the 14.6th percentile, and had to check it twice before I believed it.
Now, let’s look at the placement discipline.
The average daily volatility, based on daily-boundary ATR14, is about 8.90%. Both my take-profit and stop-loss are set within that range—I never place them somewhere volatility can’t reach.
When liquidity is thin, a single wick can trigger a stop loss, so I don’t dare set this one too wide.
Take profit is +4.97% from the current price; stop loss is -2.06%.
That gives this trade a risk-reward ratio of about 2.41.
It’s like a spring compressed all the way down: the first bounce comes from the compression, not from a new trend.
I’m betting it’ll catch its breath as it bounces off the floor, not that it’ll reverse course. I know the difference.
If it moves up, I’ll take half off at 4.689 and see whether the rest can break out of the range.
Do you think a -2.06% stop loss is too tight? Let’s discuss in the comments.
$BEAT $BULLA
#NEAR #BEAT #Cryptocurrency
The above is a record of my personal trading system and observations of market data. It does not constitute investment advice.
