#FedWatch trend on Binance Square is all about the Oct 28 FOMC decision.
Current CME FedWatch snapshot:
- *Oct hold at 3.75-4.00%: ∼90%* probability, hike only ∼10%
- Early Oct it was 53% hike odds, then weak jobs (+29K vs 90K expected, unemployment 4.2%) flipped sentiment to 82-90% hold
- *Hawkish hold:* Dec hike still 71-90% priced. So pause now, but not dovish.
Traders call it risk relief for crypto/tech, but Powell/Warsh presser at 2:30 PM ET is the real volatility event.
Candles show how BTC trades the expectation:
Red small bodies = indecision before FOMC, green expansion = relief on hold odds rising. Long wicks around Oct 26-28 = spike expected at decision time. If hawkish tone, red candle drop; if dovish pause, green continuation.
Bottom line: market expects hold now, hike later.
Current CME FedWatch snapshot:
- *Oct hold at 3.75-4.00%: ∼90%* probability, hike only ∼10%
- Early Oct it was 53% hike odds, then weak jobs (+29K vs 90K expected, unemployment 4.2%) flipped sentiment to 82-90% hold
- *Hawkish hold:* Dec hike still 71-90% priced. So pause now, but not dovish.
Traders call it risk relief for crypto/tech, but Powell/Warsh presser at 2:30 PM ET is the real volatility event.
Candles show how BTC trades the expectation:
Red small bodies = indecision before FOMC, green expansion = relief on hold odds rising. Long wicks around Oct 26-28 = spike expected at decision time. If hawkish tone, red candle drop; if dovish pause, green continuation.
Bottom line: market expects hold now, hike later.
