10.30 Chen Jie’s Night Analysis
On Friday, keep an eye on preliminary GDP and price data from Europe and the US. Today’s market action marked a key turning point: from an early-session high of 4069, prices fell steadily by nearly 59 points, reaching a low of 4010, and are now around 4021. The daily chart formed a full-bodied bearish candle, completely engulfing the rebound of the previous two days. This shows that selling pressure is particularly heavy in the 4070–4080 area, and the short-term rebound structure in place since midweek has now ended.
The most significant change behind today’s decline is that prices have fallen back below the 4-hour middle band (4032) and the 1-hour middle band (4032). The moving averages, which had provided support, have now turned into overhead resistance. The daily lower band is at 3996, while the 4-hour lower band is opening and moving down to 3990, leaving more room to the downside.
The US session steadied after touching around 4010, just above the 1-hour lower band (4007). Prices are now around 4021, consolidating close to the 15-minute middle band (4023). After a sharp intraday drop of nearly 60 points, it is not advisable to chase prices lower. The 4032 area overhead is a resistance zone where the 4-hour middle band, 1-hour middle band, and 15-minute upper band (4032) converge. It would be much safer to wait for a rebound to test this resistance before entering.
Trading strategy
Look to go short around 4030–4040; targets: 4000, 3970, and 3940. Stop: 4058#xau $XAU
On Friday, keep an eye on preliminary GDP and price data from Europe and the US. Today’s market action marked a key turning point: from an early-session high of 4069, prices fell steadily by nearly 59 points, reaching a low of 4010, and are now around 4021. The daily chart formed a full-bodied bearish candle, completely engulfing the rebound of the previous two days. This shows that selling pressure is particularly heavy in the 4070–4080 area, and the short-term rebound structure in place since midweek has now ended.
The most significant change behind today’s decline is that prices have fallen back below the 4-hour middle band (4032) and the 1-hour middle band (4032). The moving averages, which had provided support, have now turned into overhead resistance. The daily lower band is at 3996, while the 4-hour lower band is opening and moving down to 3990, leaving more room to the downside.
The US session steadied after touching around 4010, just above the 1-hour lower band (4007). Prices are now around 4021, consolidating close to the 15-minute middle band (4023). After a sharp intraday drop of nearly 60 points, it is not advisable to chase prices lower. The 4032 area overhead is a resistance zone where the 4-hour middle band, 1-hour middle band, and 15-minute upper band (4032) converge. It would be much safer to wait for a rebound to test this resistance before entering.
Trading strategy
Look to go short around 4030–4040; targets: 4000, 3970, and 3940. Stop: 4058#xau $XAU
