Third-quarter growth accelerated; BTC watchers should also consider September purchasing power
Readers following BTC can update their macro outlook tonight from “waiting for data” to two sets of published results: U.S. economic growth accelerated in the third quarter, but real consumer spending barely increased in September. The two cover different periods, so both can be true at the same time; neither result alone is enough to infer the direction of crypto prices.
The BEA released its advance estimate of third-quarter GDP and September personal income and outlays at 08:30 EDT on October 29 (20:30 Beijing time). At 20:00, they were still listed as upcoming; we have now reviewed the official releases. We do not have a verified market consensus forecast, so we will not describe the results as “above expectations” or “below expectations.”
First, growth. Real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.4% in the third quarter, compared with 2.2% in the second quarter; the technical notes indicate that this corresponds to an increase of about 0.8% for the quarter. Investment, consumer spending, and government spending increased, partly offset by a decline in exports. This supports the conclusion that growth accelerated from the previous quarter, but 3.4% should not be read as meaning the economy grew 3.4% in just three months.
Next, how much consumers actually bought in September. Nominal PCE increased 0.5% month over month, while real PCE, adjusted for prices, grew by less than 0.1%. The monthly table shows 0.0% after rounding; that does not mean it was exactly zero. At the same time, real disposable personal income fell 0.3% month over month. So “spending increased” and “the actual quantity purchased barely increased” are not contradictory; nominal spending should not be taken as direct evidence of broad-based demand acceleration.
On prices, the September PCE price index rose 0.5% month over month, while the index excluding food and energy rose 0.3%. These are monthly figures; the quarterly PCE price growth rate in the GDP report is seasonally adjusted and annualized, so the periods and measures need to be aligned before making comparisons. The advance estimate and monthly estimates are also subject to revision and are not the final word.
My limited assessment is that growth resilience and pressure on purchasing power need to be considered together. The former may support risk appetite, while the latter and price pressures may also affect market views on policy; their implications do not automatically point in the same direction. Positioning, other news, and liquidity may also explain BTC’s moves, so simultaneous events should not be treated as cause and effect.
In this round of data collected at 21:00, BTC was around 80140.02USDT, with an approximately -0.14% change over the full 20:00–21:00 hour and trading volume of around 32.7721 million USDT. This hour spans the period before and after the release, so it cannot be treated as a pure reaction during the first half-hour after publication. Going forward, watch for revisions to the actual results and for sustained changes in comparable price measures and trading activity. $BTC
Readers following BTC can update their macro outlook tonight from “waiting for data” to two sets of published results: U.S. economic growth accelerated in the third quarter, but real consumer spending barely increased in September. The two cover different periods, so both can be true at the same time; neither result alone is enough to infer the direction of crypto prices.
The BEA released its advance estimate of third-quarter GDP and September personal income and outlays at 08:30 EDT on October 29 (20:30 Beijing time). At 20:00, they were still listed as upcoming; we have now reviewed the official releases. We do not have a verified market consensus forecast, so we will not describe the results as “above expectations” or “below expectations.”
First, growth. Real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.4% in the third quarter, compared with 2.2% in the second quarter; the technical notes indicate that this corresponds to an increase of about 0.8% for the quarter. Investment, consumer spending, and government spending increased, partly offset by a decline in exports. This supports the conclusion that growth accelerated from the previous quarter, but 3.4% should not be read as meaning the economy grew 3.4% in just three months.
Next, how much consumers actually bought in September. Nominal PCE increased 0.5% month over month, while real PCE, adjusted for prices, grew by less than 0.1%. The monthly table shows 0.0% after rounding; that does not mean it was exactly zero. At the same time, real disposable personal income fell 0.3% month over month. So “spending increased” and “the actual quantity purchased barely increased” are not contradictory; nominal spending should not be taken as direct evidence of broad-based demand acceleration.
On prices, the September PCE price index rose 0.5% month over month, while the index excluding food and energy rose 0.3%. These are monthly figures; the quarterly PCE price growth rate in the GDP report is seasonally adjusted and annualized, so the periods and measures need to be aligned before making comparisons. The advance estimate and monthly estimates are also subject to revision and are not the final word.
My limited assessment is that growth resilience and pressure on purchasing power need to be considered together. The former may support risk appetite, while the latter and price pressures may also affect market views on policy; their implications do not automatically point in the same direction. Positioning, other news, and liquidity may also explain BTC’s moves, so simultaneous events should not be treated as cause and effect.
In this round of data collected at 21:00, BTC was around 80140.02USDT, with an approximately -0.14% change over the full 20:00–21:00 hour and trading volume of around 32.7721 million USDT. This hour spans the period before and after the release, so it cannot be treated as a pure reaction during the first half-hour after publication. Going forward, watch for revisions to the actual results and for sustained changes in comparable price measures and trading activity. $BTC