Nasdaq and BTC: there’s something interesting going on with their correlation today
Don’t explain today’s market action with last week’s rate-cut story.
Let’s put the numbers on the table first, then talk about what they mean.
Crude oil 101 (5-day -0.32%, Yahoo)
Dow 52,475 (5-day -0.72%, Yahoo)
S&P 500 7,744 (5-day -0.17%, Yahoo)
My take: S&P 500 -0.17%, Nasdaq -0.57%—the indexes aren’t diverging. If they aren’t diverging, don’t make up a sector story. Wait for the next volume spike.
Crypto comparison: BTC 80294 (24h -1.58%), ETH 2325 (-1.97%). ETH’s 24h change of -1.97% is weaker than BTC’s -1.58%; the exchange rate is 0.02896. Capital is concentrating in BTC; wait and see before taking positions in altcoins.
What to watch next: On the crypto side, there’s just one thing to watch: can BTC close above its 24h high of 81789? If it can’t, talk of it following the rally is just bluster.
My positioning: I’m not buying the first dip. Until the drop is accompanied by a decline in open interest, going long early is just catching a falling knife.
Data: Binance spot 24h / Binance USDⓈ-M / Yahoo daily (5-day change) / altme_fng / mempool_fees / defillama_chains / coingecko_trending. Missing figures are left blank.
Would you dare increase your position at this funding rate?
#美股 #BTC #TradingWatch
Useful info: Basis = futures price minus spot price. With a positive basis, longs are paying.
Food for thought: The dollar has strengthened over the past 5 days, while BTC is still rising: treat it as an independent move, and discount its staying power.
Data card (same data pull as the main text; missing figures are shown as dashes):
BTC 80,294 -1.58% Binance spot 24h
ETH 2,325 -1.97% ETH/BTC 0.02896
S&P 500 7,744 -0.17% Yahoo 5-day
Nasdaq 26,550 -0.57% Yahoo 5-day
Dollar 102 +0.25% DXY 5-day
VIX 17.06 -12.29% Yahoo
Funding rate 0.0073% Open interest 7.78B (24h -1.08) Long/short ratio 2.2216 Binance USDⓈ-M
For context: people elsewhere are discussing “bitcoin OR stock market OR US stocks - Google News.” I’m using that only as background; the conclusion is still based on the figures in the main text.
Personal opinion; figures are from the sources listed in the main text. Not an instruction to trade.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
Don’t explain today’s market action with last week’s rate-cut story.
Let’s put the numbers on the table first, then talk about what they mean.
Crude oil 101 (5-day -0.32%, Yahoo)
Dow 52,475 (5-day -0.72%, Yahoo)
S&P 500 7,744 (5-day -0.17%, Yahoo)
My take: S&P 500 -0.17%, Nasdaq -0.57%—the indexes aren’t diverging. If they aren’t diverging, don’t make up a sector story. Wait for the next volume spike.
Crypto comparison: BTC 80294 (24h -1.58%), ETH 2325 (-1.97%). ETH’s 24h change of -1.97% is weaker than BTC’s -1.58%; the exchange rate is 0.02896. Capital is concentrating in BTC; wait and see before taking positions in altcoins.
What to watch next: On the crypto side, there’s just one thing to watch: can BTC close above its 24h high of 81789? If it can’t, talk of it following the rally is just bluster.
My positioning: I’m not buying the first dip. Until the drop is accompanied by a decline in open interest, going long early is just catching a falling knife.
Data: Binance spot 24h / Binance USDⓈ-M / Yahoo daily (5-day change) / altme_fng / mempool_fees / defillama_chains / coingecko_trending. Missing figures are left blank.
Would you dare increase your position at this funding rate?
#美股 #BTC #TradingWatch
Useful info: Basis = futures price minus spot price. With a positive basis, longs are paying.
Food for thought: The dollar has strengthened over the past 5 days, while BTC is still rising: treat it as an independent move, and discount its staying power.
Data card (same data pull as the main text; missing figures are shown as dashes):
BTC 80,294 -1.58% Binance spot 24h
ETH 2,325 -1.97% ETH/BTC 0.02896
S&P 500 7,744 -0.17% Yahoo 5-day
Nasdaq 26,550 -0.57% Yahoo 5-day
Dollar 102 +0.25% DXY 5-day
VIX 17.06 -12.29% Yahoo
Funding rate 0.0073% Open interest 7.78B (24h -1.08) Long/short ratio 2.2216 Binance USDⓈ-M
For context: people elsewhere are discussing “bitcoin OR stock market OR US stocks - Google News.” I’m using that only as background; the conclusion is still based on the figures in the main text.
Personal opinion; figures are from the sources listed in the main text. Not an instruction to trade.
$BTC $ETH $SOL