Before the European session opens, here’s a signal getting drowned out by earnings noise: copper is sold out.
The Yangshan copper premium surged past $200/ton today, its highest level since records began in 2017. China’s inventories are bottoming out and output is slowing, while buyers in the U.S. are scrambling to import and stockpile. Bloomberg’s headline put it bluntly: “Copper is sold out everywhere.” With physical supplies this tight, the inflation story is far from over.
The memory chip story is even more interesting. Samsung’s HBM is sold out through 2027, and capital spending is up 60%—yet profits still came in below expectations. That’s just the growing pains of ramping up production. Goldman Sachs has come right out and said DRAM prices could keep rising through the first half of 2028, with next year’s HBM market set to grow by more than 230%. In the AI arms race, the ones quietly making a fortune are the memory sellers.
But smart money is already shifting elsewhere. PIMCO quietly cut its positions in Meta and Oracle by half—a strong sign of taking profits while the going’s good. Meanwhile, Tencent’s average daily token calls have topped 500 trillion. China’s AI sector is actually scaling up—not just telling a story.
$BTC is still stuck below 80,000. Tonight at 20:30, core PCE will set the tone for whether rates get cut in December. Rising commodity prices plus the AI cash-flow reality check: both point to the same thing—don’t get carried away. Wait for the data before making a move.
NFA DYOR
#AI #InflationTrade
The Yangshan copper premium surged past $200/ton today, its highest level since records began in 2017. China’s inventories are bottoming out and output is slowing, while buyers in the U.S. are scrambling to import and stockpile. Bloomberg’s headline put it bluntly: “Copper is sold out everywhere.” With physical supplies this tight, the inflation story is far from over.
The memory chip story is even more interesting. Samsung’s HBM is sold out through 2027, and capital spending is up 60%—yet profits still came in below expectations. That’s just the growing pains of ramping up production. Goldman Sachs has come right out and said DRAM prices could keep rising through the first half of 2028, with next year’s HBM market set to grow by more than 230%. In the AI arms race, the ones quietly making a fortune are the memory sellers.
But smart money is already shifting elsewhere. PIMCO quietly cut its positions in Meta and Oracle by half—a strong sign of taking profits while the going’s good. Meanwhile, Tencent’s average daily token calls have topped 500 trillion. China’s AI sector is actually scaling up—not just telling a story.
$BTC is still stuck below 80,000. Tonight at 20:30, core PCE will set the tone for whether rates get cut in December. Rising commodity prices plus the AI cash-flow reality check: both point to the same thing—don’t get carried away. Wait for the data before making a move.
NFA DYOR
#AI #InflationTrade