Microsoft and Google delivered sharply contrasting results after the bell: Azure surged 48% year over year, with cloud revenue still accelerating, and the stock briefly rose 5–6%; Alphabet, meanwhile, came in below expectations on both revenue and earnings per share, while free cash flow turned negative for a second consecutive quarter, at around $9 billion, and the stock briefly plunged by more than 10% after hours. Cloud was actually strong at both companies—Google Cloud doubled year over year to about $30.7 billion—but the market is now more focused on cash flow and ad growth. Whether AI capital spending can generate returns matters more than the growth story.
The regular U.S. session was fairly steady: the S&P 500 closed at 7743.98 (+0.28%), the Nasdaq at 26549.85 (+0.27%), and the Dow at 52475.10 (+0.19%); memory and semiconductor stocks stayed strong. But the 10-year Treasury yield returned to around 5.02%. The Fed stood pat on the eve of its announcement, though two members favored a rate hike, leaving risk assets noticeably more fragile today.
$BTC spot fell to around 79960, down about 1.5% over 24 hours. The gains from the daytime high near 81800 have been completely erased, and the price briefly touched a low of 79710. Open interest in futures is about 96,900 BTC; the long/short ratio by account remains at 2.1–2.2, while the large-trader position long/short ratio has risen to around 2.0. The taker buy/sell ratio has been weak over the past few hours. At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the U.S. advance estimate of third-quarter GDP and September PCE data are due; after the U.S. market closes in the early hours, Amazon and Intel report as well—the tech divergence is not over yet.
I’m not treating Microsoft’s after-hours gain as an entry signal, nor chasing shorts just because Google sold off: I won’t open new futures positions in $BTC for now, and I’ll leave spot unchanged. If volume contracts and price reclaims 80400, then I’ll consider 80800–81000; if it breaks below 79500, I’ll reduce leverage first. The firm support level remains 79220. Better to trade less until the data is out.
The regular U.S. session was fairly steady: the S&P 500 closed at 7743.98 (+0.28%), the Nasdaq at 26549.85 (+0.27%), and the Dow at 52475.10 (+0.19%); memory and semiconductor stocks stayed strong. But the 10-year Treasury yield returned to around 5.02%. The Fed stood pat on the eve of its announcement, though two members favored a rate hike, leaving risk assets noticeably more fragile today.
$BTC spot fell to around 79960, down about 1.5% over 24 hours. The gains from the daytime high near 81800 have been completely erased, and the price briefly touched a low of 79710. Open interest in futures is about 96,900 BTC; the long/short ratio by account remains at 2.1–2.2, while the large-trader position long/short ratio has risen to around 2.0. The taker buy/sell ratio has been weak over the past few hours. At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the U.S. advance estimate of third-quarter GDP and September PCE data are due; after the U.S. market closes in the early hours, Amazon and Intel report as well—the tech divergence is not over yet.
I’m not treating Microsoft’s after-hours gain as an entry signal, nor chasing shorts just because Google sold off: I won’t open new futures positions in $BTC for now, and I’ll leave spot unchanged. If volume contracts and price reclaims 80400, then I’ll consider 80800–81000; if it breaks below 79500, I’ll reduce leverage first. The firm support level remains 79220. Better to trade less until the data is out.
