In 80 years, the party in power has lost House seats 18 times; this time, Democrats are just 3 seats short

Looking back through the records since 1946, governing parties rarely have an easy time in midterm elections. Old Ox has been watching Bitcoin a bit more closely here.

From 1946 to 2022, there were 20 midterm elections. The party occupying the White House lost House seats 18 times, shedding around 25 seats on average.

There were only two exceptions: Clinton in 1998 and George W. Bush in 2002. In both years, the president’s approval rating was around 65%, and only then did the governing party pick up a few seats.

The White House is currently held by Republicans. In the latest nationwide poll, Trump’s approval rating is 32%, nowhere near 65%.

Now, how many seats would they need to lose for it to count as a defeat? The House currently has 218 Republicans and 214 Democrats; one independent votes with the Republicans, and two seats are vacant. Based on the pre-election numbers, that’s roughly 220 to 215.

Democrats need a net gain of 3 seats to win a majority. Since 1946, the governing party’s smallest loss was in 1962—and even then, it lost 4 seats.

Going by past records, the House result is more or less a foregone conclusion. There are years when the pattern doesn’t hold, so leave a little room for uncertainty.

The Senate is another matter. In those same 20 elections, the governing party actually gained Senate seats 6 times. In 2018, during Trump’s first term, Republicans lost over 40 seats in the House but gained 2 in the Senate.

The Senate is currently 53 to 47, and Democrats need a net gain of 4 seats. In several of the states they need to win, the polling gaps are mostly just one or two points, so Old Ox doesn’t dare make a firm prediction.

$BTC has its own history to look back on. On Election Day, November 6, 2018, spot closed at 6519.11; by December 15, it had closed at 3211.72, down by more than half.

In the November 8, 2022 election, it opened at 20590.67 on voting day and closed at 15781.29 on November 21, a drop of about 23%.

Both times it fell, but both times the trouble came from within crypto: in 2018, there was turmoil over a fork; in 2022, a major platform in the industry imploded. The elections just happened to fall around those dates.

So Old Ox doesn’t use election results to guess Bitcoin’s direction; the focus is still on how the price itself moves.

At 79875, Old Ox thinks it’s still possible to go long with a small position. If the daily chart gets back above 82000 and holds there for a few days after the election, that’s when Old Ox will start adding to long positions.

With five days until voting, which state’s results are you most worried about?